Flemington Preview & Best Bets – Saturday December 17

Our form expert provides Flemington tips for today’s horse racing at Flemington Racecourse and gives his best bets.

Flemington Tips 17/12/2022

BEST BET 🏆 

Race 6 No. 1 PERSAN- ($3.40)

Now or never for PERSAN. The six-year-old has not won since March in 2021 but has been solid in some of the top staying races in Melbourne over the spring, placing three times at Group level. His most recent run came in the Zipping Classic (2400m) at Caulfield on November 26 and he led them up before sticking on to run 3rd behind Vow And Declare, going 12.2 lengths faster than standard benchmark. Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2600m) run prior to that was not as strong but his form at Flemington has generally been top notch over the years. 

NEXT BEST 🥈 

Race 3 No. 4 ARRAN BAY- ($4.60)

Race 3 is a BenchMark 84 over the 1600m and ARRAN BAY should be right in the thick of it. The last start winner was able to enjoy a cushy run on the speed at Pakenham before doing enough in the closing stages to hold on from The Nephew over the 1600m. He was second up that day and should improve. His only other run over the 1600m yielded a win in the Silver Bowl at Flemington back in winter. The son of All Too Hard overcame a wide run that day back in July to go a very healthy 9.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark. Look for him to lead or settle handy in a race where there is not too much pressure up front. 

NEXT BEST 🥈 

Race 7 No. 2 ESTA LA ROCA- ($4.60)

Liked the run of Rose Quartz at Caulfield recently but going with ESTA LA ROCA in the feature of the day at Flemington, the Kensington Stakes. The Lloyd Kennewell-trained galloper comes in with eight weeks in between runs after narrowly missing over the 1000m on a Heavy track on Cox Plate day, while she was two lengths off Bella Nipotina prior to that over the 1000m at Listed level. She has had one run at Flemington over the 1000m for a close up 5th in March behind Malkovich, going 11 lengths faster than standard. The daughter of El Roca will make her own luck on speed and drops to the 54kg. 

Best Value 💰(EACH-WAY)

Race 4 No. 11 FREEDOM ESCAPE- ($8)

Banking on some improvement from FREEDOM ESCAPE at his third run back from a spell. The Paul Preusker gelding has run on well at his two runs this preparation to finish runner-up and couldn’t quite reel in Ballynora on December 2 at Moonee Valley in a BenchMark 64. Third up last time he improved more than five lengths on benchmark figures at this stage to score at Warracknabeal before going 11.3 lengths faster than standard benchmark when runner-up at Flemington over the 1700m behind Thalassophile. The son of Hallowed Crown has attracted some support in the early betting and will be ridden by Matthew Cartwright.