Port Augusta Racing Tips 19 July — can the maidens hold their nerve?
Grafton Racing Tips 19 July — does Dunn own this track?
M J Dunn doesn’t just turn up at Grafton, he sets up shop. Sixty two runners here historically, sixteen wins, and he hits the frame with two out of every three. That’s not pub talk, that’s a body of work. And on a short two-race meeting, that sort of stable gravity matters because it shapes the market and it shapes the tempo.
So these Grafton racing tips are written through that lens: what’s a real edge (trainer and jockey volume at this track), what’s just a single-run anecdote, and which races are actually bettable. We’re on turf, and with maiden-grade races you’re always balancing who’s had chances against who might simply be ready to jump now the setup suits.
You’ll get a straight view on both races, a clear best bet, and one value play if the market gives us the price.
Grafton — the setup
Limited course form across today’s fields. Most of these runners have one or two goes here, which is fine, but it means I’m not throwing around the word specialist. The one hard, repeatable edge is the people: Dunn’s long-term strike and his place rate at this track are miles ahead of the room.
On the rider side, D L Turner has ridden 37 times at Grafton and won 6. G Spokes doesn’t win as often here, but he places a stack of them, 21 placings from 56 rides, and that matters in these messy maiden races where the right stalk-and-pounce ride often beats raw talent that gets trapped wide.
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Jockeys with meaningful Grafton volume (5+ rides)
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D L Turner | 37 | 6 | 12 | 16.22 | 32.43 |
| Bailie Baker | 16 | 3 | 7 | 18.75 | 43.75 |
| G Spokes | 56 | 4 | 21 | 7.14 | 37.50 |
| B Looker | 60 | 6 | 15 | 10.00 | 25.00 |
| Nick Heywood | 10 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 40.00 |
Trainers who bring enough runners here to trust the pattern (5+)
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M J Dunn | 62 | 16 | 41 | 25.81 | 66.13 |
| K A Lees | 8 | 2 | 5 | 25.00 | 62.50 |
| Aiden ST Vincent | 18 | 3 | 4 | 16.67 | 22.22 |
| A Parramore | 15 | 2 | 6 | 13.33 | 40.00 |
| Stephen & Jordan Lee | 22 | 1 | 5 | 4.55 | 22.73 |
Race-by-race
Race 1: GM Accounting Maclean Mdn Hcp — 12:50, 1859m
Durness is the one I want in a race where plenty have already shown you their ceiling. He’s drawn 8 which isn’t a cuddle, but over this trip that’s not the death sentence it is in a sharp 1100m maiden, and he maps to get a chance to build into it rather than being forced into a sit sprint.
The hook is that his form profile is actually trending the right way without winning yet. Over the last 90 days he’s had three runs and hit the frame twice, averaging a finish of second. That’s a horse holding form, not a horse searching for it. Add the little Grafton note too: he’s placed on his only start here. That’s a data point, not a trend, but it does tell you he handles the track.
The danger is Taga Smile from gate 1. Inside draws over this sort of journey can be gold if the rider keeps them out of trouble, and K A Lees has a strong enough Grafton record to take seriously. Taga Smile’s recent three-run snapshot has him around the mark more than the raw form figures suggest, with one placing from three in the last 90 days.
Staking: Win bet Durness. Save with a small quinella Durness, Taga Smile if you want cover for the inside draw.
Race 2: Andrew Tom Builder Pty Ltd Mdn Plate — 13:30, 1203m
Here’s the puzzle: do you side with the horse that keeps finding the line, or the stable that keeps finding winners at this track. I’m siding with the stable and the setup. Rum And Kirk might look plain off a single “9” in the form line, but the placement screams intent. Dunn trains him, Turner rides, and those two names are the only proven, high-volume Grafton angle on the card.
Dunn wins often enough here to treat it as a real edge, and he hits the frame two-thirds of the time. Turner is a genuine Grafton rider too. In maiden plates over 1200m, I’ll take that combination over a stack of lightly raced types drawn wide who might be better horses eventually but don’t necessarily win today.
The obvious threat is Sea Turtle, who comes off a “9-772” profile and has Bailey Wheeler on. Sea Turtle has finished second last start which is usually the key in these races: you’ve already proven you can sustain pressure late. He’s also had one run at Grafton and ran sixth, again a data point, not a guide, but it’s not a negative either.
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Staking: Win bet Rum And Kirk. If the market overreacts to that single poor run and pushes Sea Turtle out, consider a saver exacta with Sea Turtle running second.
The plays
NAP: Durness (Race 1, 12:50). He’s in form right now, two placings from his last three runs in the last 90 days, and he’s already shown he’s comfortable at Grafton with a placing on his only visit.
Value: Rum And Kirk (Race 2, 13:30). This is a bet on connections and placement, not vibes. Dunn’s Grafton record is the standout on the meeting: 16 wins from 62 runners, and he lands a place with 41 of them.
Banker for multis: Durness to run top two. Maiden handicaps over this trip can get messy, but his recent profile says he stays in the fight.
Each-way look: Taga Smile (Race 1). Gate 1 plus a trainer who places plenty at Grafton gives you a clean each-way shape if the price holds.
Course angle to keep: When you see Dunn and Turner paired at this track, treat it as a proper lead, not a trivia stat.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Grafton today?
Racing starts at 12:50 with the GM Accounting Maclean Maiden Handicap over 1859m.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Grafton?
On the trainer side, M J Dunn is the benchmark at Grafton: 62 runners here for 16 wins and 41 placings. For jockeys with real sample size, D L Turner leads today’s relevant names on volume: 37 rides for 6 wins, while Bailie Baker has a strong place profile with 7 placings from 16 rides.
What are the best bets at Grafton today?
The Grafton best bets on this card are Durness in Race 1 (placed on his only Grafton start and has two placings from his last three runs in the last 90 days) and Rum And Kirk in Race 2 on the Dunn and Turner combo at this track.
Where can I find the best odds for Grafton races?
Best practice is to compare prices across bookmakers as close to jump time as you can. Odds weren’t available in the feed for these two races at the time of writing, so check your preferred books directly for live Grafton odds and late moves.
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