Ipswich Racing Tips 24 July — can Kojak finally land it?
Grafton Racing Tips 24 July — can Dunn dominate again?
Grafton Racing Tips 24 July — can Dunn dominate again?
M J Dunn doesn’t dabble at Grafton. He uses it. Sixty four runners here for 16 wins and 42 placings is the sort of footprint you only leave if the place is on your map, not just on your way. And on this card he’s got runners in the two maidens that matter most for punters, with Nick Heywood riding three times for him across the meeting. That’s the angle I’m building these Grafton racing tips around.
We’re on the turf, and the program in the data is five races deep, starting at 11:34 and rolling through to 13:49. What you’ll get below is a race-by-race that reads like someone actually tried to solve the puzzles: tempo guesses, map guesses, where the weight and gate matter, and where I’m happy to bet and where I’m happy to watch.
Grafton — the setup
There isn’t a stack of deep, reliable course form among the horses today. Most of these fields are made up of runners with one or two visits to Grafton, which is a data point, not a pattern. The one exception worth taking seriously is in the people: Dunn brings volume, and a few of the riders have enough rides here that their strike rates actually mean something.
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| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Heywood | 16 | 3 | 8 | 18.75 | 50.00 |
| Bailie Baker | 18 | 4 | 8 | 22.22 | 44.44 |
| D L Turner | 37 | 6 | 12 | 16.22 | 32.43 |
| Amelia Heinrich | 6 | 2 | 2 | 33.33 | 33.33 |
| Archie MC Colm | 30 | 1 | 11 | 3.33 | 36.67 |
| Grace Palmer | 19 | 2 | 5 | 10.53 | 26.32 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M J Dunn | 64 | 16 | 42 | 25.00 | 65.62 |
| K A Lees | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33.33 | 66.67 |
| MS P Barron | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40.00 | 60.00 |
| Allan Chau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.67 | 33.33 |
| J D Shelton | 46 | 5 | 13 | 10.87 | 28.26 |
| N J Osborne | 12 | 1 | 4 | 8.33 | 33.33 |
Race-by-race
Race 1: Cjm Lawyers Mdn Plate — 11:34, 1783m
The contender I keep coming back to is Junostar. The form line isn’t flashy, but it’s the right kind for a maiden at this trip: 3, 2, 5 and then kept ticking over. The hook is the set-up: a 1783m maiden can turn into a staying test for horses that haven’t learned to relax, and Junostar gets Anthony Allen and a soft-ish gate (4) to ride it like a racehorse, not like a panic job.
I’m also happy with the weight context. Junostar carries 125.6 while plenty of these are lumping 130, and over a non standard mile, that matters more than it does in a sharp 1000m dash.
The danger is Zayyano. That profile screams “always there, rarely first”, but Allan Chau can place a horse, and Zayyano has been close enough often enough that if the race falls into a grind from the 600m, she’s one that can keep finding. Draw 9 isn’t perfect, but it can work if they roll off the fence early.
Play: Win bet Junostar. Small saver quinella Junostar, Zayyano if you want cover in a messy maiden.
Race 2: Grafton Sheetmetal Country Boosted Mdn Hcp — 12:04, 1312m
Here’s the question: do you want the one that keeps running into trouble, or the one whose stable simply farms this track? I’m siding with the stable.
Torque So Hot (M J Dunn, Nick Heywood) looks like the most dependable way to bet into the race. In the last 90 days he’s had two runs and placed once, which sounds modest until you remember this is a maiden and half the field has never even hinted at doing anything under pressure. Dunn wins one quarter of his runners at Grafton and hits the frame almost two-thirds of the time. That’s 64 runners of intent, not a cute angle.
The race shape should help too. There isn’t obvious rocket fuel drawn underneath him, so Heywood should be able to get him into rhythm from gate 7, slide across, and make the others chase.
The one that can beat him is Meadowbrook. He keeps turning up and running well without landing it, and his recent patch is solid: three runs in the last 90 days for two placings. He’s also been to Grafton once and placed, so you can trust him to handle the track without needing to invent a story. Gate 5 gives Archie MC Colm options.
Play: Torque So Hot to win. If you’re playing safer, take him in a win and place style bet with Meadowbrook as the saver.
Race 3: Dougherty Property (Bm58) — 12:39, 1312m
This one starts with the market problem, even without prices in front of us: people will look at a benchmark and overthink it, when the simplest answer often wins. Enhance brings the simplest answer.
He’s drawn 1, carries 130, and he’s already proven he can do it at Grafton. Two runs here for a win and another placing. That’s not enough to call him anything grand, but it’s enough to treat him as a horse who actually handles the place. His recent 90-day sample is only one run, but it was a win, and that’s exactly how you want a BM58 horse arriving, not sneaking in off a tired fifth.
I can see Grace Palmer using the inside to either lead or box seat and make the others come around him. Over 1312, that matters because the turn comes at you quickly, and you don’t want to be hunting runs from the 350m.
The danger is Minor Key. He’s been knocking on the door (form reads like a horse who lives between fourth and second), and 124.5 is a handy weight if the tempo lifts. If Enhance over-races, Minor Key can be the one launching down the crown of the track late.
Play: Win bet Enhance. Exacta Enhance over Minor Key if you want something more aggressive.
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Race 4: Maclean Hotel (Bm58) — 13:14, 1312m
The contrast is sharp here. Credit Controller has the big weight and the wide gate. Meadowbrook in Race 2 had the “keep it simple” profile. This isn’t that kind of race. It’s a map and momentum race.
I’m backing Got The Smarts each-way. Gate 1 means O A Dalton can make the race about track position, not raw ability, and in country BM58s I’ll take an inside draw with intent every day. The horse’s recent form includes a win two back (6-6415), which tells you there’s still a pulse. He’s had two runs at Grafton and hasn’t placed, so I’m not selling him as a track horse, but the set-up is better than a lot of these who have to work early.
The danger is Too Darn Finesse. K A Lees has a strong Grafton record across enough runners to respect it, and Too Darn Finesse’s form says he can measure up to this grade. From gate 10 he needs luck and timing, but if the inside pair carve each other up, he’s the one I can see sweeping past.
Play: Each-way Got The Smarts. If you’re a win-only punter, this is a race to go lighter and keep the powder for Race 3 and Race 5.
Race 5: Herb Blanchard Haulage Mdn Plate — 13:49, 1230m
The stable move is the loudest thing on the page: Dunn has three in this race, and that isn’t accidental. If I have to be with one, it’s Sorrenti with Nick Heywood.
Sorrenti’s form is short but sharp, 2 and 3, and then went to the paddock. That’s often the right profile for a maiden at 1230 because they’ve shown they can find the line and they’ve had time to mature. Dunn’s overall Grafton numbers are strong enough that when he aims at a maiden, I assume the horse is there to win, not to make up the numbers.
The other Dunn runner I Am Steffi looks the obvious danger and the saver. She comes off a second last start and she has been to Grafton once and placed. Again, one start isn’t a trend, but it’s reassurance. If she jumps and controls the speed from gate 11, she can pinch it while the rest are still sorting themselves out.
A proper curveball is Don’t Doubt Sophie. Two starts for two third placings is the kind of consistency that gets paid in maidens. Gate 4 puts Adin Thompson in the race from the first 50 metres, and if the Dunn trio overplay their hand, Sophie can sit behind them and get the last crack.
Play: Win bet Sorrenti. Saver on I Am Steffi. If you’re playing multiples, keep Don’t Doubt Sophie onside for second and third.
The plays
I’m keeping it straightforward today. My NAP is Enhance (Race 3, 12:39). He’s drawn to control his own fate and he’s already won at Grafton, plus his recent run was a win, not a warm-up. That’s the cleanest bet on the card.
The value angle, without odds to lean on, is Got The Smarts (Race 4, 13:14) each-way. Gate 1 gives him a cheap run, and these 1312m races can reward the horse that holds a spot and kicks, even if the resume doesn’t sparkle.
The banker for multis is Torque So Hot (Race 2, 12:04). Dunn at Grafton is as close as this meeting gets to a repeatable edge, and the Heywood booking reads like intent.
The each-way play if you only want one is still Got The Smarts, simply because the map is kinder than it looks on paper. And the course angle I’ll be watching all afternoon is Dunn and Heywood together: if they’re positive early and take up spots, the track is likely rewarding initiative. If they keep sending them here at this rate, Dunn stays the Grafton yardstick every time the circuit rolls around.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Grafton today?
Racing at Grafton starts at 11:34 with the Cjm Lawyers Mdn Plate (Race 1).
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Grafton on today’s card?
Trainer-wise, M J Dunn is the headline act at this track: 64 runners at Grafton for 16 wins and 42 placings. In the saddle, the riders with strong enough Grafton volume to trust include Nick Heywood (16 rides here for 3 wins and 8 placings) and Bailie Baker (18 rides for 4 wins and 8 placings).
What are the best bets at Grafton today?
The best bet on the card is Enhance in Race 3 (12:39). The next best is Torque So Hot in Race 2 (12:04), leaning into the Dunn and Heywood combination and Dunn’s proven Grafton strike rate across a big sample.
Where can I find the best odds for Grafton races?
You’ll get the best Grafton odds by shopping around bookmaker apps close to jump time. Odds weren’t available from the feed for this meeting, so treat early prices as placeholders and re-check in the final 10 minutes before each race.
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