Sunshine Coast Racing Tips 19 July — can Kendrick own the early maidens?
Pakenham Racing Tips 20 July — can the track favs deliver?
There are days at Pakenham where you can overthink it. This one feels the opposite: the card is littered with runners who have already proven they handle this circuit, and a couple of those profiles look like they have landed in the right race rather than just turning up for another run.
The surface is the Pakenham all weather, so I am leaning harder than usual on two things: barrier to map and who has actually performed here before, even if the sample is small. You will see a few “won on their only start here” angles in the better races, and I am happy to treat that as a positive without pretending it is a lifetime trend.
Below are my Pakenham racing tips for Monday, 20 July 2026, with a clear play for each race, one danger that can beat it, and a stake suggestion you can actually follow.
Pakenham — the setup
All races on the all weather. With a lot of maidens early, the best edge is usually: draw a spot, find the stable that can place one to win, and respect riders who repeatedly get the right run at this track.
Limited course form across today’s fields overall, with most runners having one or two prior visits. That is enough to note “handles the place”, not enough to crown specialists.
Jockeys worth following here (meaningful sample: 5+ rides):
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Williams | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30.00 | 70.00 |
| Lachlan Neindorf | 89 | 17 | 37 | 19.10 | 41.57 |
| J Mott | 95 | 15 | 38 | 15.79 | 40.00 |
| Jye McNeil | 84 | 13 | 38 | 15.48 | 45.24 |
| Lachlan King | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Trainers with proper volume at Pakenham (5+ runners):
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Price & M Kent Jnr | 65 | 11 | 28 | 16.92 | 43.08 |
| Ben, Will & JD Hayes | 77 | 7 | 24 | 9.09 | 31.17 |
| L & T Corstens & W Larkin | 7 | 4 | 5 | 57.14 | 71.43 |
| P G Moody & Katherine Coleman | 60 | 10 | 28 | 16.67 | 46.67 |
| C Maher | 60 | 13 | 32 | 21.67 | 53.33 |
Ladbrokes Review [Updated March 2026] | Ladbrokes.com.au Pros & Cons
- Info Hub
- Mates Mode
Race-by-race
Race 1: Ladbrokes Odds Surge Mdn Plate — 12:30, 1094m
The question in a 2yo maiden like this is simple: who is here to win today, and who is here to learn? I want the stable that can win early, and I want a gate that lets the rider hold a spot on the all weather.
Tommy’s Lass (gate 3) has already shown something with a “2” on the page, and the booking of M J Dee tells you they are not messing around. From that draw she should land in the first half without burning fuel, which matters over this short trip where wide runners can get posted and forced to work.
The danger is Phillip Island (gate 4). The form line is only “8”, but Price and Kent are a serious Pakenham operation, and Craig Williams is the rider you want when a young horse needs a patient but decisive ride. If he finds cover and gets the right peel, he can run over the top.
Play: Win bet Tommy’s Lass. Small saver quinella with Phillip Island if you want insurance in a tricky juvenile race.
Race 2: Become A Southside Racing Member Mdn Plate — 13:00, 1203m
I am starting with the shape here. There is enough speed drawn inside that the first 400m should be genuinely run, and that tends to expose the ones that only sprint late without a turn of foot.
Watten Assett (gate 14) has the look of the runner who keeps finding the line without winning, and “072-22” screams “about to bust through” if he gets even luck. He does have the awkward draw, but J Mott rides this track all day every day and knows where to slot in. If he can slide across and find a moving line, he is the one I want launching from the 600m.
Crime Of Passion (gate 3) is the obvious danger. Price and Kent are strong here over volume, and the low draw gives Thomas Stockdale options to hold a position and make the others chase.
Play: Each-way Watten Assett. If the market somehow gives you a juicy place price, take it and move on.
Race 3: Frankston Sand Soil & Mini Mix Mdn Plate — 13:30, 1203m
This is a race where the stable move matters more than the form lines. The Hayes yard has stacked this meeting with multiple runners, and when they start spreading their ammo across maidens, it is usually because they think there is a win somewhere on the program.
Jundah (gate 3) comes off a “3” first up and draws to get the soft run. L Nolen is not here for a picnic, and if he can hold a rail or one off position, Jundah looks the most likely to take a step forward quickly.
The danger is Cosmic Shower (gate 14). He has a “…-3” on the end of the form and that reads like a horse who has found his legs this prep. The wide alley is the issue, but Lachlan Neindorf rides this track as well as anyone and can make wide gates workable if the speed is on early.
Play: Win bet Jundah. Keep stakes sensible, it is still a maiden with plenty of unknowns.
Race 4: Raceday Medical Mdn Plate — 14:00, 1750m
The market will often overreact to a single placing at this track, and in this race I actually want that. The 1750m on the all weather can turn into a grind, and I prefer horses that have already shown they can keep finding under pressure.
Soul Mistress (gate 10) brings the right kind of form: “253322” and rarely runs a bad one. That is the profile I trust when they step up in trip. She has had two goes at Pakenham without winning, but she has placed once from those two visits, and that is enough to say she handles it. The rider switch to Jye McNeil also adds intent, because he rides this venue well through volume.
The danger is Miss Shiino (gate 13). She is “7-72” and trending the right way. If the tempo steadies mid race and it becomes a sprint from the 500m, she has the kind of tactical speed that can pinch it.
Play: Win bet Soul Mistress. This is also the best “anchor” style leg on the card for a small multi because she keeps turning up.
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Race 5: Ray White Pakenham & Officer Mdn Plate — 14:30, 1531m
Here is the contrast: one runner that keeps knocking on the door, and one that has the perfect map.
Soundwave (gate 1) gets the rail and has the kind of form that wins this grade sooner rather than later: “23-242”. From the inside draw, Jye McNeil can control his own destiny, hold the spot, and make the others go around him. In these mid distance maidens on the all weather, that matters.
The danger is Butterscotch (gate 15). She has been ultra consistent with “4322”. She also has two Pakenham runs for one placing, and that is a positive without overplaying it. The wide gate forces her rider to make a call early, and if she presses forward and finds cover, she can be the one finishing hardest.
Play: Win bet Soundwave. Save on Butterscotch if she drifts to a price that makes sense given the alley.
Race 6: RW Advisory Group (Bm62) — 15:00, 1531m
The market problem in the last is that it will often gravitate to the obvious last start winners, and forget the ones who have already shown they can win at this track. I am not doing that here.
King Maywin (gate 12) won on his only start at Pakenham. That is not a long-term pattern, but it does tell you he handles this place, and his current form “034-31” says he is moving the right way. He also lands in a race where several of his rivals carry awkward profiles: either out of form, or drawn badly and needing luck. Lachlan Neindorf is a serious advantage here too, and his big sample at Pakenham makes him the sort of jockey who can turn a three wide run into the right stalking position.
The main danger is Clansman (gate 10). He comes in off “771”, and while his own course record is not flash from two runs, he is a progressive 3yo and this class can fall apart quickly if the favs get pressured early.
Play: Win bet King Maywin. If you are building a small multi, he is the banker for me.
Where the money goes
I am happy to keep it simple at Pakenham today. The early maidens carry the usual 2yo and lightly raced uncertainty, so I want my bigger opinion late where the track form and race experience start to count.
NAP: King Maywin (Race 6, 15:00). Won on his only start here and comes through a profile that suggests he is still on the way up, not plateauing.
Value: Watten Assett (Race 2, 13:00) each-way. He keeps running into the frame and one good run in transit can finally see him land the win.
Banker for multis: Soul Mistress (Race 4, 14:00). She does not win often, but she races honestly and rarely drops out of the fight, which is exactly what you want in a multi leg.
Each-way play: Watten Assett again. If you only have one each-way ticket on the program, make it the horse that keeps getting close.
Course angle: Do not ignore the big Pakenham stables, but do not assume dominance equals certainty. Price and Kent win about 17% of their runners here from a 65-run sample, Hayes are closer to 9% from 77. The better read is where their runners are placed and which jockey they have chosen for the job.
Next time you see Craig Williams popping up on a Price and Kent runner from a good gate at this track, treat it as a real intent signal, not a coincidence.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Pakenham today?
Racing kicks off at 12:30 with Race 1, the Ladbrokes Odds Surge Mdn Plate over 1094m.
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Pakenham?
Craig Williams has been the standout rider on the numbers among today’s regulars, winning 3 of 10 rides and placing 7 times at this track. Among the bigger stables, Price and Kent have a 65-run sample at Pakenham with 11 winners and 28 placings, while Hayes have had 77 runners for 7 wins and 24 placings.
What are the best bets at Pakenham today?
My Pakenham best bets are King Maywin in Race 6 (won on his only start at the track) and Soul Mistress in Race 4 as the safer multi leg based on her consistent “253322” form line.
Where can I find the best odds for Pakenham races?
Shop around with your preferred bookie and look for late market moves close to jump. Odds feeds were not available in the data for this meeting, so I have kept these Pakenham predictions price-free and form-driven. You can compare markets directly with bookmakers like bet365, Betfair and others once they publish prices.
Responsible gambling
Support and resources: If gambling is affecting you or someone close to you, call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
Gamble responsibly. 18+ only.
Affiliate disclosure: RacingBase may earn a commission from qualifying purchases made via affiliate links. This does not affect our selections or editorial opinions.
