Australian Cup Tips & Preview 2024
Doncaster Mile Tips & Preview 2024
Looking for Doncaster Mile tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2024 Doncaster Mile at Randwick.
DONCASTER MILE BETTING SNAPSHOT
A field of 20 plus four emergencies have accepted for the $4 million Doncaster Mile and it is the Victorian galloper, Another Wil, that is the $4 favourite with ladbrokes after the barrier draw ahead of the Randwick Guineas (1600m) winner, Celestial Legend, at $5.50.
The Japanese raider and 2023 Golden Eagle (1500m) winner, Obamburamai, is at $8, while Militarize is at $10. Detonator Jack, Lady Laguna and Linderman are all at $15, while Kovalica, Zougotcha and Southport Tycoon are $17. Think About It heads the rest of them at the $18 quote.
DONCASTER MILE FORM ANALYSIS
Another Wil has won five of seven career starts and profiles well for the time-honoured handicap race. The four-year-old has won all four of his races this time in and travelled to Rosehill last weekend, easily accounting for his rivals in the Doncaster Prelude (1500m), winning that by over two lengths. The Ciaron Maher-trained galloper went 9.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark and drops to the 50kg. He is one of six in the race for the stable.
Obamburumai should be hard to beat if his Golden Eagle win is anything to go by. He was first up off a six-month break that day and came from worse than midfield to defeat Pericles in narrow fashion, going three lengths faster than standard benchmark. That came off a slow tempo. His last 600m and last 200m of that race are the fastest last start figures for those sections of any runner.
There are eight contenders in the Doncaster Mile that had their most recent start in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill on March 23. The winner out of that, Veight, is not one of them. Lady Laguna was the runner-up and went a healthy 10.9 lengths faster than standard. She drops 6kg for this.
Militarize ran on for 3rd. Golden Mile was 4th. Think About It settled handy but faded into 5th. Hard to make a case for some of the beaten brigade. Pericles and Kovalica were forced back from their respective barriers and finished 7th and 11th.
Best last start benchmark figures belong to Southport Tycoon, who went 13.3 lengths faster than standard benchmark when claiming the Australian Guineas. Form around that has been red-hot with the placegetters, Riff Rocket and Veight, claiming Sydney Group 1 races at their next starts. The Victorian form must be respected, however, the three-year-old cops the visitors draw.
We can make a few links through the Southport Tycoon form reference with Veight and Miilitarize, who was a narrow runner-up behind Celestial Legend in the Randwick Guineas in his start prior to that. Celestial Legend went 10.7 lengths faster than standard in the Randwick Guineas and comes in with four weeks in between runs.
Democracy Manifest is one of six Chris Waller-trained gallopers in the race and one of five last start winners in the field. He went 12.3 lengths faster than standard when claiming the Ajax Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill on March 15. Detonator Jack was 3rd in that race and meets the winner 1kg better at the weights.
Lindermann is an interesting contender. He took out the Sky High (2000m) on March 16 by four lengths and was 3rd behind the likes of Think It Over and Fangirl prior to that.
As always, wet weather is likely to play a part at The Championships with between 25-130mm of rain forecast from Thursday to Saturday for Sydney. Militarize was a Group 1 winner on this day a year ago on a bog track in the Sires. Nugget is one of the emergencies and ran 3rd in this race last year on a Heavy 9, going 11.5 lengths faster than standard. Zougotcha, Detonator Jack, Loch Eagle and Semana are among a number of others that have performed well on the Heavy in the past. Semana was runner-up behind Zougotcha in the recent Coolmore Classic.
DONCASTER MILE TIPS AND BEST BETS
This is a bit of a raffle and the likely Heavy conditions might play a part. I am looking for a bit of value and Detonator Jack presents appeal at the each-way quote. He has has won three and placed in a further three on Slow or Heavy and draws to save ground from the draw, while the five-year-old will strip fitter after running 3rd behind Democracy Manifest last time. Southport Tycoon will need a stack of luck from the barrier but is hard to resist given the form through Veight and Riff Rocket. He was a winner at his only go on the Soft, albeit in slow time. He carries just 49kg and might land in the better part of the track from the wide gate.
