Inglis Sires' Tips & Preview 2022
Australian Derby Tips & Preview 2022
Looking for Australian Derby tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Australian Derby at Randwick.
AUSTRALIAN DERBY FORM ANALYSIS
A capacity field of 18 runners are set to line up in the Australian Derby and it is the Victoria Derby (2500m) winner, Hitotsu, that heads the market with BlueBet at the $3 quote, ahead of Monday’s Tulloch Stakes (2000m) runner-up, Regal Lion at the $6.
Hitotsu jumps straight up from the 1600m after claiming the Australian Guineas (1600m). Convention would suggest that he needs to have had another run since then, possibly over the 2000m before tackling the Derby but the Maher/Eustace team are excellent at pulling off the unorthodox.
He jumped up from the mile in the spring when 5th in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) to take out the Victoria Derby, going 5.3 lengths faster than standard benchmark over the 2500m.
At Flemington when resuming he went 13.5 lengths faster than standard and he has clearly come back a better and more mature horse. On figures, he will take a power of beating.
He had the upper hand over the likes of Forgot You in the Victoria Derby last year. That horse was no match for Anamoe in the recent Rosehill Guineas (2000m), which is one of the tried and true lead ups towards this race.
Alegron and Maurice’s Medad also raced in the Australian Guineas. Hard to see either of that pair turning the tables on the winner although Maurice’s Medad has run well since then against the older horses in the Albury Cup (2000m), working home nicely for 3rd.
Four other gallopers come up from Melbourne after running in the Alistair Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley on March 18. That race was taken out by Prix De Turn, who wont be seen at Randwick. Can’t Go Wrong was runner-up in that race and is a stablemate of Hitotsu. He was held up before working home nicely and producing the fastest last 200m.
The son of Per Incanto went 5.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark and is clearly on the up, while he gives the impression he will thrive over the 2400m. War Eternal, Castlereagh Kid and Elzamee also come out of the Alistair Clark, performing well. Suspect Castleragh Kid might lead this time around and give them something to chase. He has the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott polish.
No shortage of six runners are on the back-up after running in the Tulloch Stakes (1850m) at Newcastle last Monday. Character showed plenty to win that for the Godolphin stable and must be respected on that effort.
The Kiwi galloper, Regal Lion, stamped his credentials by running on to fill the exacta. He was placed in the NZ Derby (2400m) prior to that and will be out to join the likes of Quick Thinker, Jon Snow and Mongolian Khan as recent winners of this race for the Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman training combination. He is a genuine threat too Hitotsu.
Of the beaten brigade out of the Tulloch, Benaud is one to keep in mind. The son of Reliable Man ran on well for 4th in what was a nice trial.
AUSTRALIAN DERBY TIPS AND BEST BETS
Very hard to split Hitotsu and Regal Lion. Hitotsu looks to be something special, while it is impossible to ignore Regal Lion for mine, given the success the stable has had in this race in recent years. If I had to choose one it would be Hitotsu, given that this formula worked in the spring.
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