Sydney Cup Tips & Preview 2024
Australian Oaks Tips & Preview 2024
Looking for Australian Oaks tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2024 Australian Oaks at Randwick.
AUSTRALIAN OAKS BETTING SNAPSHOT
It is the New Zealand filly, Orchestral, that is the dominant $1.60 favourite for the Australian Oaks with PlayUp after her win in the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m), ahead of the 2023 VRC Oaks (2500m) winner, Zardozi. The Victorian contender, Autumn Angel, is at $7.50.
Tutta La Vita is a $10 chance after her effort to to finish runner-up behind Orchestral last time, while Quintessa is at $15. Basilinna is at $26, while Dances With Hooves ($126), Piplup ($151), True Fairy ($201) and Bush Girl ($201) are the roughies in the race.
AUSTRALIAN OAKS FORM ANALYSIS
Five of the field of 10 had their most recent run in the Vinery Stud Stakes and Orchestral made it five wins on the trot by edging out Tutta La Vita at the business end. The daughter of Savabeel settled midfield and they went very slow early on. She was able to produce the fastest last 200m and is expected to improve over the 2400m.
The Roger James & Robert Wellwood filly claimed the NZ Derby (2400m) by four lengths at her previous go at the distance. Her four wins prior to the Vinery Stud Stakes came at an aggregate margin of nearly 14 lengths and she is clearly the one to beat.
Tutta La Vita gave connections of the New Zealander a bit of a fright at Rosehill on March 30, taking over at the 400m before giving a bit of a kick in the straight. She finished half a length away. Zardozi produced the third fastest last 200m to grind into 3rd place, just over a length from the winner.
The Godolphin galloper came into her own when fourth up at this stage of her last preparation, winning over the 1600m at Flemington before taking out the VRC Oaks later on, going 8.1 lengths faster than standard benchmark. Orchestral went just 0.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark in the Vinery Stud Stakes, but that was due to the slow tempo early on.
Piplup and True Fairy are the others to come out of the Vinery Stud Stakes, finishing 7th and 8th. Both will have their work cut out here but it is worth noting that Piplup produced the second fastest last 200m.
Best last start benchmark figures belong to Quintessa, who went 8.9 lengths faster than standard when unlucky as the runner-up in the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley behind Antrim Coast. Another Kiwi, she is the stablemate of Imperatriz and was 4th in the Australian Guineas (1600m) at her start prior to that, just on the heels of Riff Rocket, going 11.4 lengths faster than standard in that race,
Form out of that race has been first class with Riff Rocket claiming both the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and Australian Derby (2400m), while the runner-up, Veight, went on to take out the George Ryder Stakes (1500m). Interesting to note that Quintessa finished well ahead of Orchestral the only time they met but that was a bit inconclusive as it was over the 1200m and Orchestral has come on leaps and bounds since then.
Autumn Angel is worth a bit of thought and conceded 8kg to Good Banter last Saturday when going down to that horse by half a length. She was posted wide throughout but kept coming to go 7.6 lengths faster than standard.
Basilinna was 3rd behind Autumn Angel in the Ethereal Stakes (2000m) last year and 3rd behind Zardozi in the VRC Oaks. She is yet to finish ahead of either of those two, or Quintessa, in the times they have met but is capable of filling a minor placing.
AUSTRALIAN OAKS TIPS AND BEST BETS
There looks to be a lack of speed in this race and we might see a similar scenario as to what played out in the Vinery Stud Stakes. Autumn Angel and Quintessa were not involved in that race and I am willing to consider that pair, given the prohibitive odds on offer for Orchestral. Autumn Angel is on the short back up after racing on the Heavy 9 last week but has been producing some good figures and her peak came fourth up last spring when taking out the Ethereal Stakes. Quintessa is just a slight query over the 2400m but has attracted a bit of support since final acceptances and is one that can position handy and take advantage of what might be a slow tempo.
