Cox Plate Winning Trends

The Cox Plate (2040m) is regarded as Australia’s weight-for-age championship and and we take a look at the Cox Plate winning trends.

For the purists, the Group 1 feature is simply the best event on the Australian racing calendar and the Moonee Valley classic features an honour roll that is choc full of the greats. Phar Lap, Tulloch, Rising Fast and Kingston Town are just some of the names to have taken out Australia’s weight-for-age championship.

In more recent times, Winx, So You Think, Maybe Diva, Northerly and Sunline have rocked the ampitheatre that is the Valley. Last year, it was the Japanese galloper, Lys Gracieux, that proved to be too good for the locals.

After the barrier draw this year, Arcadia Queen has been installed as a $4.50 favourite with sportsbet ahead of Russian Camelot and Armory at $5, while Probabeel ($10) and Dragonet ($11) head the rest. In order to find you a winner we analysed the Cox Plate winning trends since the year 2000 and it reveals the following.

Nine of the 20 runnings of the Cox Plate have been won by favourites but outside of Winx, that drops to five from 15. The likes of It’s A Dundeel, Whobegotyou, Miss Finland, Elvstroem, Lonhro and Sunline missed out as the popular elect.

Eight of the past 20 winners have scored at double figure odds or higher including the 2013 winner Shamus Award ($21), while Fields Of Omagh also scored at those odds in 2006. Favourites to have saluted include Sunline in 2000 at $2.40, while her famous rival, Northerly, scored at $4 in 2002. In 2005 Makybe Diva triumphed as a $2 favourite. Lys Gracieux was a $2.50 popular elect last year. Outside of Winx, So You Think is the shortest priced winner since 2000, starting at $1.50 when he won his second Cox Plate in 2010.

The weight-for-age race has seen both young and old gallopers succeed. Three-year-olds have won the race on three occasions since 2000 with Savabeel (2004), So You Think (2009) and Shamus Award all successful with the lightweight. Grandslam is the sole three-year-old this year and placed 3rd behind Ole Kirk in the recent Caulfield Guineas.

There has been an even spread of winners from the four, five and six-year-old age groups. Six-year-olds have won the race seven time since the year 2000, while the four-year-olds have won on six occasions.

Master Of Wine, Mugatoo, Aspetar and Magic Wand are the six-year-olds this year, while Russian Camelot, Armory and Probabeel are four.

Probabeel is one of four mares in the race his year. The others are Magic Wand, Arcadia Queen and Nettoyer. Lys Gracieux, Winx, Pinker Pinker, Makybe Diva and Sunline are the mares to have won the Cox Plate since 2000, combining for eight wins. Sunline also won in 1999, while Dane Ripper won in 1997.

An interesting statistic is that horses drawn between barriers 3 and 7 have supplied 14 of the past 20 Cox Plates winners. Four winners have jumped from barrier 6. This year, Aspetar, Magic Wand, Grandslam, Armory and Sir Dragonet occupy those spots.

The most successful jockey in the race since 2000 has been Hugh Bowman with four wins courtesy of Winx, while Glen Boss has won the race three times. Craig Williams (twice) is another multiple winner.This year, Williams rides Humidor, while Boss steers Sir Dragonet. Last year’s winner, Damian Lane is aboard Aspetar.

The key lead ups to the Cox Plate have been the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and the Turnbull Stakes (2000m). Five winners have come through the Caulfield Stakes and four have claimed the Caulfield Stakes/ Cox Plate double. This year, Arcadia Queen won that race ahead of Russian Camelot, while Humidor was 3rd.

Five winners since 2000 have come out of the Turnbull Stakes including Winx in 2017 and 2018. This year, Master Of Wine was 5th in the Turnbull but has since finished down the track when 10th in the Caulfield Cup (2400m).

For people who are keen on the likes of Aspetar, Sir Dragonet, Armory and Buckhurst, keep in mind that the international gallopers generally have a moderate record in the Cox Plate.

Of the gallopers that were trained internationally in their lead up to racing in the Cox Plate, only Adelaide and Lys Gracieux have won, while Benbatl, Grandera and Folkswood are the only other one to have placed since 2000.

Another feature of this years field is that five runners had their most recent start in Sydney including Kolding, who took out the Hill Stakes (2000m). Three winners of the Cox Plate since 2000 had their most recent runs in Sydney and they were Winx, Pinker Pinker and Savabeel.

Selections based on the Cox Plate winning trends

There is no obvious standout based on trends but Arcadia Queen ticks the most boxes. The internationals will need to be absolute top liners to salute, as will those coming down from Sydney. The Caulfield Stakes has been a tried and true lead up, while mares also have an excellent record in the Cox Plate.

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