JJ Atkins Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth Adam Cusworth
JJ Atkins Trends

How can the JJ Atkins trends help us find a winner in the $350,000 Group 1 for the two-year-olds at Eagle Farm on Saturday?

The JJ Atkins Stakes (1400m) is the leading race for the youngsters in Brisbane and was won last year by Prince Fawaz, while The Autumn Sun, Capital Gain and Sacred Elixir are other recent winners.

Lovely Jubly, who is the dam of Chautauqua, saluted back in 2002 when it was known as the TJ Smith Stakes, while the great Mahogany was a winner back in 1993.

It is normally run over the 1600m but because of a reshuffling of the Brisbane scheduling dud to Covid-19, it will be run over the 1400m this year.

It is one of two Group 1 races for the day at Eagle Farm on the weekend and we are out to help you find the winner by looking at JJ Atkins trends since the year 2000.

The JJ Atkins has generally been taken out by horses in the first few lines of betting and the average price of the winners has been $7 since 2000.

Only four winning gallopers have paid more than $8 in that time period and they were the 2017 winner, Capital Gain, who won as a $21 shot, while Linky Dink scored as a $26 chance in 2009.

Rockdale (2008) and Darci Brahma (2005) saluted at $11 and $13 respectively.

Four favourites have won the race since 2000, including The Autumn Sun and Sacred Elixir at $4 in 2016. Press Statement was a $6.50 chance in 2015 when he won.

Prince Fawaz was just shaded by Accession (6th) in the market last year.

In early markets with Sportsbet this year, Rothfire is a $3.50 favourite ahead of Wisdom Of Water and Macroura at $6. Isotope is at $7 with Overlord heading the rest at $15.

The ideal form reference for the JJ Atkins has always been the Queensland Sires Produce (1400m). 12 of the past 18 winners have come out of the Sires with four of those claiming the double.

But because of the changes, the key lead-up does appear to be the Champagne Classic (1200m) this year, which was taken out by Rothfire from Isotope and Wild Ruler.

An interesting recent trend is that the last two JJ Atkins winners have come out of 1400m races at Randwick. Macroura jumps up from an 1100m race at Rosehill, while Overlord was a last start runner-up to Peltzer in a 1300m race at Randwick.

Chris Waller has won the mile race for the juveniles on three occasions since 2010 with Pressday another winner alongside Press Statement and The Autumn Sun.

Anthony Cummings is a two-time winner since 2000.

Gai Waterhouse was successful in 2013 and 2014 and combines with Adrian Bott this year.

Walller has Spokesman, Saffiano and Overlord this year.

Cummings and Waterhouse are without a runner. The Snowden yard were successful in 2011 with Benfica and have Wild Ruler this year.

Queensland based trainers have a number of the leading hopes, but it is NSW based trainers have owned the event in recent times and have claimed 12 of the past 16 versions of the race.

Selections according to the JJ Atkins Stakes trends

It is a bit of a tricky one as the norm is for horses that are below $10 and trained in NSW but none match that criteria.

With the disruption in the Queensland programming due to coronavirus we need to delve deeper and it is Overlord that can go close, given that Waller has a terrific record in this race, while the exposure to the 1300m should suit.

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