Melbourne Cup Tips 2021 | Expert Preview & Predictions
Melbourne Cup Tips 2021
Looking for expert Melbourne Cup Tips? Our form analyst has a great record picking the Melbourne Cup winner and gives his best bets in 2021. As we head closer to Melbourne Cup day we will preview the race that stops the nation, providing an analysis of the key runners in the final field.
We will also delve deeper into the Melbourne Cup programme, finding winners among the 10-race programme, including best bets, value bets and roughies for the day.
Early Melbourne Cup Prediction
Our final Melbourne Cup selection will be released when the final field and barrier draw has been declared, but for those looking to secure some early value, DAWN PATROL is looming as a top prospect and is likely to shorten in price as he progresses through the spring carnival.
Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)
Melbourne Cup Trifecta Tips
The trifecta in the Melbourne Cup is generally the largest trifecta payout in Australian racing each year due to the large volume of money in the pool. Our Trifecta tips for the Melbourne Cup will also be available following the field and barrier draw release. Check back after Saturday, October 30, to see our Melbourne Cup trifecta staking plan and selections.
Melbourne Cup Day Tips & Best Bets
Our Victorian horse racing expert will preview the entire meeting on Melbourne Cup Day and provide his top four selections for every race.
Race 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000 METRES)
Maribyrnong Plate tips coming soon
Race 2 – Schweppervescence Plate (1000 METRES)
Schweppervescence Plate tips coming soon
Race 3 – TAB Trophy (1800 METRES)
TAB Trophy tips coming soon
Race 4 – MSS Security Sprint (1200 METRES)
MSS Security Sprint tips coming soon
Race 5 – Subzero Handicap (1400 METRES)
Subzero Handicap tips coming soon
Race 6 – Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy (1400 METRES)
Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy tips coming soon
Race 7 – Furphy Plate (1800 METRES)
Furphy Plate tips coming soon
Race 8 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)
See above for our early selection or check back after the field and barrier draw for our final preview and predictions.
Race 9 – The Macca’s Run (2800 METRES)
The Macca’s Run tips coming soon
Race 10 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400 METRES)
The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes tips coming soon
Melbourne Cup Day Quaddie Tips
The Melbourne Cup Day Quaddie will kick off in Race 7 with the Furphy Plate over 1800m before moving onto the main event and then The Macca’s Run (2800m) and finally The Hong Kong Jockey Clubb Stakes (1400m). Our Quaddie tips for Flemington on Cup Day will be available on Monday, November 1.
Melbourne Cup 2021 Preview
A capacity field of 24 stayers will compete for $7.4 million in prizemoney as well as earning their place in history by winning the 2021 Melbourne Cup.
Early markets with online bookmakers see a mix of local and international gallopers at the top of the betting. The sensation from Queensland, Incentivise, is a $13 equal favourite with Spanish Mission, who went toe-to-toe with Stradivarius in the recent Lonsdale Cup (3280m).
Dawn Patrol remains as $15 after his first up effort in the recent Feehan Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley, while the Andrew Ramsden Stakes (2800m) winner Realm Of Flowers is at $19.
Others in the market are Sir Lucan ($19), Sonnyboyliston ($21) and last year’s winner, Twilight Payment ($23), while ATC Derby (2400m) and SA Derby (2500m) winner, Explosive Jack, is at $26.
Things to consider before betting on the Melbourne cup
There are number of factors to take into account when thinking about your Melbourne Cup bet. Key lead up races include the Caulfield Cup (2400m), Cox Plate (2040m), Geelong Cup (2400m) and the Bart Cummings (2500m) to name a few. There are plenty of varied formlines from the international brigade that also need to be factored in.
The Melbourne Cup is a Handicap with the topweight often being allocated something in the vicinity of 58kg, while a number in the 24-horse field sneak in just above the minumum of 49kg. Weight is always a factor in the Melbourne Cup, as well as a number of race-day factors including barrier positions, pace in the race, as well as the track rating.
Statistics are Important – Learn From Past History
Since the year 2000, there have been only three favourites to have won the event. Fiorente was successful in 2013 as a $7 popular elect, whilst the mighty mare, Makybe Diva, looked after punters in both 2004 and 2005 when starting as favourite. The average price of the winners since 2000 is $17 but that figure is inflated somewhat after Prince Of Penzance scored at $101 in 2015. Take Michelle Payne’s winner out of the equation and the price since 2000 is $13. Last year, Twilight Payment won at $26
Twilight Payment had not had a start in Australia since missing out in the 2019 Melbourne Cup. The 2020 win was his first start for that campaign on Australian soil. The 2017 winner, Rekindling, and the 2018 winner, Cross Counter, both won the Melbourne Cup at their first run in Australia.
The most successful age group in the Cup since 2000 has been the six-year-olds with that group winning nine of the past 20 Melbourne Cups. However, three of the past four editions taken out by four-year-olds, including two from the northern hemisphere.
The Caulfield Cup has provided five of the past 21 winners of the Melbourne Cup, including Vow And Declare in 2019, who was runner-up at Caulfield before scoring at Flemington. The Cox Plate has provided four winners of the Melbourne Cup since 2000. Other key lead ups include the Geelong Cup and the Hotham Handicap (2500m).
The handicap conditions of the race have seen horses with a variety of weights win the Cup. The average weight of the winners has been 53.3kg. No horse has carried more than 58kg to victory this millennium. Makybe Diva scored with 58kg in 2005.
12 of the 21 winners since 2000 have come from double digit barriers including Shocking and Brew, who drew barriers 21 and 22 respectively when they won the cup. Twilight Payment crossed over from barrier 12 last year, while Vow And Declare jumped from 21 in 2019.
How have the Melbourne Cup favourites fared in the last 10 years?
|Year||Melbourne Cup Favourite||Finish||Melbourne Cup Winner|
|2020||Surprise Baby||13||Twilight Payment|
|2019||Finche||8||Vow And Declare|
|2017||Almandin & Marmelo||12 & 9||Rekindling|
|2015||Fame Game||13||Prince Of Penzance|
How do the Internationals stack up?
Of the international gallopers that feature in the top 20 of the market, only Twilight Payment, Il Paradiso and Master Of Reality have been seen on Australian shores. Twilight Payment led at a solid clip in the 2020 edition of the Cup, defeating Tiger Moth and Prince Of Arran, who has only recently been retired.
Twilight Payment will be out to become the first back-to-back winner since the three-time winner, Makybe Diva. He claimed the recent Irish St Leger Trial (2816m). Il Paradiso has not raced since running an unlucky 3rd to Vow And Declare in the 2019 Melbourne Cup. Master Of Reality was 4th that year but could only manage 15th last year.
The Yorkshire Cup (2787m) winner, Spanish Mission, is likely to head to the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and is on the second line of betting for the Caulfield Handicap.
Sir Lucan is a brother to Sir Dragonet and will come over after running in the St Leger at Doncaster on September 11. The recent Ebor winner, Sonnyboyliston, has the racing style that should be suited at Flemington and might line up in the Irish St Leger before heading over.
Who are the top local hopes?
Incentivise came from nowhere during the Queensland autumn and winter, rising from a Sunshine Coast Maiden win to take out the Tatts Cup (2400m) at Eagle Farm by an amazing 12 lengths. His last four wins have been by an aggregate margin of just under 38 lengths. Vow And Declare won the Tatts Cup in 2019 before his Cup win that year. Incentivise is set to resume in the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m).
Explosive Jack is also set to resume at Flemington in a 1700m race and claimed three derbies earlier this year. The iron-horse from the Maher/Eustace camp has the miles in his legs. That stable are also hoping for big things from Persan, who ran 5th in the Cup in 2020.
Australia’s best horse, Verry Elleegant holds a nomination for the Melbourne Cup and is world class. She defeated a number of internationals in the Caulfield Cup last year before placing 7th in the race that stops the nation.
Others to keep an eye on as we edge closer to November are Realm Of Flowers, She’s Ideal, Johnny Get Angry, Mount Popa and Tralee Rose.
Who will win the 2021 Melbourne Cup?
It’s no easy task trying making a Melbourne Cup prediction two months before race day but I was happy enough with the run of Dawn Patrol ($15 with ladbrokes) in the Feehan Stakes to suggest that he can build up to win the Melbourne Cup. The imported galloper settled back on what was a slow tempo and could only manage 11th but that was enough as he was only three lengths away on what was a bit of a sit sprint. After two weeks in quarantine, he lacked a bit of late dash and will only improve off that run. And of course, he will be racing for Team Williams, who have made the Melbourne Cup their own. Lloyd Williams has won seven cups as an owner, including three of the past five. Dawn Patrol attracted a heap of late support in the betting in the lead up to the Feehan and has some excellent credentials with form around Tiger Moth and True Self, finishing runner-up to the latter in the International Stakes (2012m) at The Curragh, a race won by the likes of Johannes Vermeer, Yucatan and Buckhurst in recent years.