Melbourne Cup Tips

Melbourne Cup Tips
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2024 Melbourne Cup Betting Tips & Race Day Preview

Read on for our complete tips and betting guide to 2024 Melbourne Cup Day and get Melbourne Cup tips from an expert with a great record of finding the winner.

Melbourne Cup Top Tip

Aidan O’Brien has had an amazing season in Europe, dominating many of the British and Irish Classics, most notably with Derby winner City 0f Troy, who is now United States bound for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Irishman could be set to win the “race that stops a nation” for the first time this year with St Leger winner, JAN BRUEGHEL.

The unbeaten three-year-old colt displayed his stamina when he won the St Leger at Doncaster back in September. That victory in the British Classic came over the distance of 2,800 metres.

The son of Galileo battled well in the closing stages of his St Leger victory, beating a strong field that included stablemate Illinois. O’Brien resisted the temptation of running his horse at the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe or British Champions Day meetings following the Doncaster success. He has ensured his horse is fresh for the Flemington feature.

Jan Brueghel is expected to be partnered with Ryan Moore in the 2024 Melbourne Cup. The Irish rider is considered the best jockey in the world. He will remain patient on his horse and commit for home at exactly the right time of the race to give his horse the best chance of victory.

Three-year-olds haven’t had a great record in the Melbourne Cup, with Skipton being the last to win in 1941. However, O’Brien knows exactly what his colt is capable of, and he would not be making the trip across to Australia if he did not feel he was good enough to prevail.

Watch Without A Fight prevail in the 2023 Melbourne Cup


Melbourne Cup Roughie Tip

There have been some big price winners of the Melbourne Cup in recent years, so don’t be put off by some of the horses further down the betting. Our roughie tip this year is ATHABASCAN. He comes into this race on the back of a victory at Randwick over 2,600 metres.

John O’Shea and Tom Charlton’s runner relished the step up in distance in the Group Three contest at Randwick. That was perfect preparation for this race.

The five-year-old has one of the lowest weight allocations in the field, as he has been handed just 52kg. He is likely to be staying on strongly at the back end of the contest when many of his rivals have cried enough.


Melbourne Cup Race Details

Date Tuesday, November 5
Time 3pm (EDST)
Track Flemington
Race No. 7
Prizemoney $8 million
Distance 3200m
Class Group 1
Race Type Handicap
Age 3YO+

 


Melbourne Cup Field 2024

Will appear here when announced on Saturday, 2nd of November.

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Racingbase’s Previous Melbourne Cup Tips & Results

Year Horse Placing Odds
2023 Ashrun 4th $26
2022 Gold Trip 1st $21
2021 Verry Elleegant 1st $11
2020 Persan 5th $41
2019 Vow And Declare 1st $11
2018 Marmelo 2nd $12
2017 Rekindling 1st $15
2016 Hartnell 3rd $5.50
2015 Fame Game 13th $6
2014 Fawkner 6th $8.50
2013 Fiorente 1st $7
2012 Mount Athos 5th $7.50

 


Top 4 betting on the Melbourne Cup with Picklebet

While other bookmakers offer betting on which horse will finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd, Picklebet take it one step further and offer four places for betting, meaning you can back a horse to finish in 4th place too.

Our top tip for the 2024 Melbourne Cup is Jan Brueghel at $4, while our roughie tip is Athabascan. You can get around $12 with other bookmakers for Athabascan to finish top 3, but you can get $8 for Athabascan to finish top 4 at Picklebet, which gives you an extra place chance to cash in.


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2024 Melbourne Cup Day Tips – All Races

Our race-by-race guide to 2024 Melbourne Cup Day includes a best bet for every race on the card as well as top four predictions. These will be included once the final fields are announced for each day.

Race 1 – 10:45AM Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000 METRES)

Race 2 – 11:20AM Furphy Plate (1800 METRES)

Race 3 – 12:00PM TAB Trophy (1800 METRES)

Race 4 – 12:40PM The Schweppervescence Plate (1000 METRES)

Race 5 – 1:20PM The Macca’s Run (2800 METRES)

Race 6 – 1:55PM MSS Security Subzero Handicap (1400 METRES)

Race 7 – 3:00PM Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES)

See above for best Melbourne Cup tip and best Melbourne Cup roughie

Race 8 – 3:50PM Howden Desirable Stakes (1400 METRES)

Race 9 – 4:35PM The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400 METRES)

Race 10 – 5:15PM Paramount+ Trophy (1400 METRES)

Exacta/Quinella Tips for the 2024 Melbourne Cup

Banking on five horses here. Our top pick JAN BRUEGHEL can’t be left out, while we’ve also included our other roughie tip, ATHABASCAN. VAUBAN ran a respectable race on his debut last year, and he should be knocking on the door once again. BUCKAROO represents the best chance for the home team, while from near the bottom of the weights, ONESMOOTHOPERATOR can put up a strong challenge.

Placing Selections
1st 5, 6, 9, 18, 22
2nd 5, 6, 9, 18, 22
Cost $20 for 100%

2024 Melbourne Cup Trifecta Tips

We are using the Quinella/Exacta bankers in our Melbourne Cup Trifecta tips – and we’ll throw a few others in the mix that could surprise.

Placing Selections
1st 5, 6, 9, 18, 22
2nd 5, 6, 9, 18, 22
3rd 2, 5, 6, 9, 15, 18, 22
Cost $120 for 100%

Melbourne Cup First 4 Tips

To cut costs down with the above numbers, we’ll have to place more confidence in JAN BRUEGHEL and fellow Irish raider VAUBAN and use them as bankers for first, while our remaining numbers can go in for 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Placing Selections
1st 5, 6
2nd 5, 6, 9, 18, 22
3rd 2, 5, 6, 9, 14, 15, 18, 22
4th 2, 5, 6, 9, 14, 15, 18, 22
Cost $240 for 100% or $24 for 10%

Quaddie Tips for Melbourne Cup Day 2024

Our Quaddie tips for Melbourne Cup Day 2024 will appear here once the runners for the full card are announced.

Tips for Reading the Melbourne Cup Form

Assessing weight

First of all, the Melbourne Cup is a handicap race and horses are weighted on the ability they’ve shown to date. Those higher up the weight scale are deemed to be the better performed horses. Being run over 3200m, weight has a significant impact on a horse’s ability, and as a general rule of thumb, each half a kilo can slow a horse down by one length. For example, if a horse carried 52kg over 3200m and then attempted the same distance with 55kg, it is estimated that horse’s performance would rate six lengths slower with the heavier weight.

So, theoretically, a horse carrying 57kg would need to be more than four lengths superior to a horse carrying 55kg. Of course, horses aren’t machines and they don’t run to an exact time or rating every time they contest a race over a certain distance, but the weight scale can be used as part of the puzzle solving when trying to find the winner of the Melbourne Cup.

Do Barriers Matter?

Up until, 2021, no horse had ever won from barrier 18 and it was considered the hoodoo barrier in the Melbourne Cup. However, Verry Elleegant broke the hoodoo and won the race from gate 18, so there are no barriers left that haven’t produced a winner. Barrier 5 has been the most successful with nine winners, and beyond that we see a mix of gates from 1 to 19 that have produced between seven and five wins each.

When assessing a barrier as a positive or negative, it’s more important to look at the horse’s racing pattern and see if the barrier suits. Barriers will make very little difference for a horse than likes to lead, but horses drawn wide that like to settle midfield may struggle to find a good position and they may be left covering more ground out wide. Most trainers and jockeys would happy to draw a barrier between five and ten in the Melbourne Cup which boasts a field of 24.

What is the Best Form Race Leading into the Melbourne Cup?

Traditionally, the Caulfield Cup was regarded as the best lead-up form race, but that has changed in recent times. Of course, the Caulfield Cup is still a very strong form reference, but in the past 14 years only two winners of the Melbourne Cup have contested the Caulfield Cup in the same preparation. More recently, the Turnbull Stakes and Cox Plate have been ideal lead-up races, while you always need to respect international form.

NOTE: in the past 14 years, every Melbourne Cup winner has finished top four in at least one of their previous two lead-up. 

Table of Lead-Up Races for Melbourne Cup Winners

YEAR WINNER LEAD-UP RACES & PLACING
2023 Without A Fight Caulfield Cup (2400m) 1st into Underwood Stakes (1800m) 6th
2022 Gold Trip Caulfield Cup (2400m) 2nd into Cox Plate (2040m) 9th
2021 Verry Elleegant Turnbull Stakes (2000m)  4th into Cox Plate (2040m) – 3rd
2020 Twilight Payment Irish St Leger (2816m)  3rd (International Race)
2019 Vow And Declare Turnbull Stakes (2000m)  4th into Caulfield Cup (2400m) – 2nd
2018 Cross Counter Voltigeur Stakes (2400m)  2nd (International Race)
2017 Rekindling St Leger (2921m)  4th (International Race)
2016 Almandin Harry White Classic (2400m)  1st into The Bart Cummings (2500m) – 1st
2015 Prince Of Penzance Herbert Power Stakes (2400m)  8th into Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) – 2nd
2014 Protectionist Prix Kergolay (3000m)  1st (International Race) into Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) 4th
2013 Fiorente Turnbull Stakes (2000m)  4th into Cox Plate (2040m) – 3rd
2012 Green Moon Turnbull Stakes (2000m)  1st into Cox Plate (2040m) – 7th
2011 Dunaden Prix Kergolay (3000m)  9th (International Race) into Geelong Cup (2400m) – 1st
2010 Americain Prix Kergolay (3000m)  1st (International Race) into Geelong Cup (2400m) – 1st

Melbourne Cup Betting Sites

Looking for the best betting sites in Australia to place a wager on ‘the race that stops a nation’? We highlight the top 10 Australian betting sites and the newest betting sites that are licensed and regulated within Australia so you can be sure you are betting with a trusted bookmaker.

Free Flemington Betting Tips

Follow the link to find our free Flemington tips and best bets for each and every meeting. Our Flemington tipster previews each meeting and highlights a Best Bet, Next Best & Best Value.

 


Melbourne Cup Tips FAQs

Who is tipped to win the 2023 Melbourne Cup?

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained ASHRUN is our 2023 Melbourne Cup tip.

What are the different types of betting tips for Melbourne Cup?

At racingbase.com.au, you can find Melbourne Cup best bets, roughie tips, quinella, exacta, trifecta, and first four tips, as well as Quaddie tips for Melbourne Cup Day and First Four predictions for every race on the card.

How do you pick a horse to win the Melbourne Cup?

There's no sure-fire answer, but there are a few key factors to consider when trying to pick a winner for the Melbourne Cup. The first is the horse's form leading up to the race. Look at its recent performances and try to identify any patterns. Is the horse peaking at the right time? The second factor is the horse's weight. In the Melbourne Cup, horses carry different weights based on their age, sex, and performance history. The handicapper will assign a weight that they believe gives every horse a fair chance of winning. The third factor is the barrier draw. This is the order in which the horses will start the race, and it can have a big impact on the outcome. A horse that starts from a wide barrier may need to use up extra energy to get into a good position, while a horse starting from an inside barrier may have an easier run. Fourth factor is the jockey. The jockey plays a big role in getting the horse around the course and into a winning position. Look at the jockey's record and try to identify any patterns. Is the jockey known for winning from behind or from the front? The fifth factor is the horse's breeding. This can give you an indication of how well suited the horse is to the Melbourne Cup's distance and conditions. Some horses are bred for speed, while others are bred for staying power. Finally, consider the odds. This is a good guide to how the market believes each horse will perform. The shorter the odds, the more confident the bookmakers are in that horse's chances. By considering all of these factors, you'll give yourself the best chance of picking a winner in the Melbourne Cup.

Which barrier wins the most Melbourne Cups?

Barrier 5 is the most successful with 8 wins.

When are Melbourne Cup Tips available?

Long range Melbourne Cup tips go live on racingbase.com.au months in advance of the race, but our final selection is published after the final field and barrier draw is declared on Derby Day eve. Tipping early in the Melbourne Cup can help to secure bigger odds but sometimes early speculation is thrown with horses not living up to previous form or not starting in the race.

Who is the Most Successful Melbourne Cup Tipster?

There are many great tipsters out there who can help you pick the winner of the Melbourne Cup, but there is no clear consensus on who is the most successful. Last year, our expert, Aaron Hamilton, tipped Gold Trip at $21 and in the previous year tipped Verry Elleegant at $11. He has provided Melbourne Cup tips for racingbase.com.au for the past 12 years and landed five winners and two placegetters out of 12 winners in that time.

What is the best way to bet on the Melbourne Cup?

There are a few different options when it comes to betting on the Melbourne Cup. You can choose to bet on the race winner, placegetters, or quinellas and trifectas. You can also choose to bet on exotics such as first fours and quaddies. If you're looking to make some quick money, betting on the race winner is probably your best option. However, if you're looking to take a punt on something a little more risky, then placing a bet on an exotic might be the way to go.

How to bet on Melbourne Cup Tips

Once you have found the horse/s you want to back in the Melbourne Cup, you can then place your bets. The most common types are Win, Place and Each-Way bets, but those looking for a big collect will target exotic bets like the Trifecta and First4.