Memsie Stakes Winning Trends
The Memsie Stakes (1400m) is the first Melbourne Group 1 of the 2021/2022 Australian thoroughbred racing season and we take a look at the Memsie Stakes winning trends.
The Caulfield feature was elevated to Group 1 status in 2013 and its honour roll reads like a who’s who of Australian racing. So You Think (2010), Makybe Diva (2005) and Sunline (2000-2001) are among some of the big names to have taken out the event since the year 2000, while Atlantic Jewel (2013), Weekend Hussler (2008), Miss Finland (2007) and El Segundo (2006) are among other stars to have claimed the $750,000 affair.
It has generally been a great one for punters with three of the past four winners among the popular fancies, including Scales Of Justice last year at $3.70, while Vega Magic ($2.30 in 2017) and Black Heart Bart ($2 in 2016) also looked after punters.
If we delve deeper into the results that have occurred since the year 2000 as a guide, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner.
The average starting price this millennium has been just $5.50. While Alizee missed out as a $2.70 chance last year, the favourites have tended to dominate as 12 of the 20 popular elects have scored.
Remarkably, Humidor is the biggest priced winner in the time period since 2000. The 2017 Cox Plate (2040m) runner-up scored at $21 in 2018, while Dissident ($12 in 2014) is the only other winner since 2000 to score at double figure odds.
Prior to that it was the champion mare Makybe Diva paid $7.50 in 2005 in what was her only victory below 2000m. So You Think also saluted at generous odds of $6 in 2010. The race has been won by odds on fancies in 2000-2001 (Sunline) and in 2008 by Weekend Hussler. The glamour mare, Atlantic Jewel, won in 2013 at $2.25.
This year, Behemoth has been posted as a $4 favourite with Sportsbet after the barrier draw, while Savatiano is at $4.50. Arcadia Queen at $6.50 is the only other horse under double figure odds. Cascadian, Mystic Journey and Glenfiddich are at $12, while Regal Power ($17) and Begood Toya Mother ($19) head the rest.
A number of the contenders fought out the recent Lawrence Stakes (1400m) which was taken out by Savatiano. That race has provided just three winners of the Memsie since 2000. Humidor in 2018 was the most recent.
Others to come out of the Lawrence this year are Cascadian (4th), Arcadia Queen (4th), Streets Of Avalon (7th), Mystic Journey (8th) and Regal Power (9th)
Last year’s winner, Scales Of Justice was runner-up behind Dalasun at Morphettville in the Spring Stakes (1200m). Interestingly, the race favourite, Behemoth, defeated Dalasun in that race this year.
It is fresh horses that have generally dominated the Memsie in recent years, winning eight of the past 11 editions but only Harlem and Mr Quickie are the fresh runners this year. Horses that draw inside barriers have tended to do well in the Memsie Stakes with 15 of the 20 winners jumping from barriers 1 to 5.
This year, Cascadian, Behemoth, So Si Bon, Mystic Journey and Mr Quickie occupy those spots. Since 2000, horses in the four and five-year-old age bracket have fared well combining to win 13 of the 20 running’s of the Memsie in that time period. There are no four-year-olds in the race this year. Regal Power, Mr Quickie, Behemoth, Mystic Journey, Arcadia Queen and Princess Jenni are five.
For fans of Glenfiddich, who makes a rare appearance for the three-year-olds, no horse aged three has won the Memsie this millennium, although few have taken on the older horses this early in the season. Some big named mares have won Memsie with Kings Rose and Magical Miss also featuring on the honour roll alongside the likes of Sunline, Makybe Diva, Miss Finland and Atlantic Jewel.
The girls have combined to win this race seven times since 2000, however, none have won since Atlantic Jewel in 2013. Mystic Journey, Arcadia Queen, Savatiano and Princess Jenni are the mares in action this year.
The most successful trainers in the race since 2000 have been Trevor McKee, courtesy of Sunline, and Lee Freedman with Makybe Diva and Le Zagaletta. Peter Moody and Darren Weir are other multiple winners. Of that group, Moody trains Glenfiddich.
David Hayes trained Miss Finland to victory in 2007 and combined with his son Ben, as well as Tom Dabernig in 2017 with Vega Magic. That stable have Harlem and So Si Bon this year. Of the hoops in this year’s Memsie, Brad Rawiler and Craig Williams are multiple winners. Williams steers Behemoth.
Selections based on trends:
Behemoth ticks plenty of boxes and will be hard to beat.