The Metropolitan Winning Trends

The Metropolitan (2400m) is a Group 1 race at Randwick that has been taken out by some big names in the past and we take a look at The Metropolitan winning trends.

A time-honoured feature on the Australian racing calendar, the Metropolitan was first run in 1863 and is the major staying event of the Sydney spring, carrying Group 1 status and $750,000 in prize money.

In the past, the Metropolitan has been a stepping stone for Sydney based gallopers on the way to the Caulfield Cup (2400m) in Melbourne and winners include Railings (2005) and Tawqeet (2006). Last year’s Metropolitan was taken out by Come Play With Me and this year’s field sees a field of 18 go around for Group 1 glory, while there are four emergencies trying to sneak into the field.

Mugatoo heads the market with Sportsbet at $3.50, while Shared Ambition is at $7. Brimham Rocks is at $9 ahead of Hush Writer at $10. Zebrowski ($11), Lord Belvedere ($13) and Mirage Dancer ($16) head the rest. In order to take out some of the guesswork for you when trying to find a winner, we have analysed the the Metropolitan winning trends since the year 2000 and it points to the following.

Of the 19 winners since the year 2000, only five have won as favourites and a further four have won at single figure odds. 10 gallopers have won at odds of $10 or above. The Metropolitan has been a race for the five and six-year-olds with 14 of the 19 winners since 2000 coming from either of those age groups.

Shared Ambition, Carif, Angel Of Truth, Miss Sentimental and Norway are the five-year-olds this year, while Mugatoo, Hush Writer, Rondinella, Paths Of Glory, Girl Tuesday and Attention Run are the six-year-olds. Major lead up races for the Metropolitan include the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m), the Colin Stephen Quality (2400m) and the Newcastle Cup (2300m).

Four of the past six winners come out of the Kingston Town Stakes. This year, Shared Ambition was runner-up in the Kingston Town, while Brimham Rocks was 3rd. Mugatoo claimed the Newcastle Cup.

Of the 19 winners since 2000, 14 were NSW trained gallopers, four were Victorians and one was from New Zealand. 17 of the 22 runners this year are NSW based, while the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace duo of Etah James and Lord Belvedere are listed as being from Warwick Farm.

Chris Waller has won the Metropolitan on four occasions since 2000, including last year with Come Play With Me, who was over for a stint from Perth. That win saw him join Gai Waterhouse as the most successful in this race this millennium.

This year, Waller has Wu Gok, Shared Ambition, Brimham Rocks, Miss Sentimental and Norway. Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have Hush Writer.

Successful jockeys in the race include Hugh Bowman and the three-time winner, Corey Brown. Bowman is on Mustajeer this year.

It is interesting to note that winners have been able to come from a variety of positions, but barriers 1 to 6 have been favoured with nine of the 19 winners. Horses to draw in this year include Mirage Dancer and Hush Writer. Mugatoo has drawn barrier 7 but might come into 6 after the removal of the emergencies.

For fans of Mustajeer and Mugatoo, who head the weights with 58kg and 57kg, no horses have carried more than 56.5kg to score in this race this since 2000. The average weight of the winning horses since 2000 has been 53.5kg. Etah James, Shared Ambition and Brimham Rocks carry that weight this year.

Selection according to the Metropolitan winning trends:

I was initially keen on Shared Ambition on trends but that horse has since been scratched. It might be another Waller galloper that salutes and that horse is Brimham Rocks

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