Flight Stakes Tips & Preview 2022
Turnbull Stakes Tips & Preview 2022
Looking for Turnbull Stakes tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.
TURNBULL STAKES BETTING SNAPSHOT
It is tight at the top of the betting between Gold Trip and Duais with Gold Trip just firming past the latter and into $4 favouritism, while Duais is $4.40. Profondo comes down from Sydney in a bid to avoid another wet spell and is $9.
The 2021 Turnbull Stakes runner-up, Young Werther, is at $12, while Inspirational Girl and the Godolphin contender, Alegron, are both at $13. Numerian and Great House head the rest of the 17-horse field at the $18 quote.
TURNBULL STAKES FORM ANALYSIS
Gold Trip is one of four horses that had their most recent start in the Naturalism Stakes (2000m) at Caulfield and finished 3rd that day behind the $21 chance for this, Smokin’ Romans.
Chapada was a solid 4th, while Crystal Pegasus didn’t handle the Heavy 8 going and ran 12th. Conditions at Flemington should see a track with some give in it but it is doubtful we will have Heavy conditions.
Smokin’ Romans went 11.2 lengths faster than standard in the Naturalism, which are the second best last start figures of any runner. He settled on the speed that day and dug deep. Gold Trip was just behind him in the run but couldn’t reel him in.
The former import was seven weeks in between runs and meets the winner a whopping 6kg better at the weights for this race. Chapada was second up and produced the second fastest last 200m. He came 3rd behind Incentivise in this race last year and just ahead of Verry Elleegant, going 14.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark.
Duais also heads into this third up and in the autumn she improved nearly seven lengths on benchmark figures to go 15.9 lengths faster than standard benchmark en route to claiming the Australian Cup (2000m). She was stepping up from the 1600m at Randwick on that occasion, just like she is this time around after running 6th in the George Main Stakes.
Profondo and Maximal also come out of the George Main Stakes, finishing 7th and 8th respectively. I am not quite convinced about Profondo. His best benchmark figures are the worst of any horse in this field but he might strike his best surface since claiming the Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) at Randwick a year ago.
Best last start benchmark figures were produced by Alegron, who went 11.3 lengths faster than standard when claiming the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) at Randwick on September 17. He might have a bit of upside and improved to claim the VRC St Leger (2800m) at Flemington back in April.
Knights Order (3rd) and Surefire (5th) also come out of the Kingston Town Stakes. Surefire has accepted for the Metropolitan at Randwick and settled handy last time on a solid tempo alongside Knights Order, who led. The latter defeated Numerian at his previous start in the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m). Numerian comes into this second up and was solid when getting out to the 2000m at his last preparation.
Worth noting that Knights Order can stay all day and claimed the Sydney Cup (3200m) earlier in the year, going 18.4 lengths faster than standard benchmark, which are the best figures that any horse has set in the past two years. He comes into this third up. The 2000m might be a tad short of his best but Flemington might just suit.
Other fancies are Inspirational Girl and Great House. Inspirational Girl boats a win over Zaaki at Flemington over the 1600m this year and was second up that day. That came off a slow tempo and she was very strong late. The lightly raced seven-year-old is second up again this time around after missing out behind Mr Brightside in the Feehan Stakes (1600m).
Great House was luckless when resuming over the 1700m here on September 10 when 3rd behind Makram. He will improve off that run but just not quite sure that he can match some of the bigger names.
TURNBULL STAKES TIPS AND BEST BETS
Hard to ignore Gold Trip with the drop in weight, while Duais, Chapada and Young Werther appear to be at an ideal stage of their respective preparations. Unable to settle on one of them. Will be going wide in the quaddie and also including Alegron and possibly Inspirational Girl. One that I keep going back to due to the speedmap is Knights Order and I think that the Waterhouse/Bott veteran could be a bit of a surprise packet at the price. He draws barrier 14 and should have time to cross to the lead, while there doesn’t appear to be too much pressure inside of him with Smokin’ Romans and Profondo likely to take a sit, while a number of the others get back. He should have improvement in him third up and don’t mind the fact that he sticks to the 2000m.
