Northerly Stakes Winning Trends

The Northerly Stakes (1800m) is one of three Group 1 races each year in Perth and we take a look at the Northerly Stakes winning trends.

The $1 million weight-for-age race has been won by some quality gallopers in the past including Kingston Town, Vo Rogue and Better Loosen Up. Arcadia Queen saluted in 2018, while Kay Cee scored last year. Pounamu (2017), Stratum Star (2016) Perfect Reflection (2015) and Moriarty (2014) are other recent winners.

If we take a look at the Northerly Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when it comes to finding a winner. The Kingston Town Stakes has generally been a good one for punters, particularly in recent years with seven of the past 11 editions taken out by the race favourite.

10 of the past 14 winners have scored at odds of $6 or below. Arcadia Queen was a dominant $2.25 favourite when she won in 2018, while Perfect Reflection and Moriarty (2014) both lobbed as $4.50 favourite’s. Ihtsaymn landed as a second top pick at $4.25 in 2014. The shortest priced winner since 2000 is Luckygray, who scored at $2.25 in 2012.

Three of the past four years have seen a few minor upsets. Kay Cee won at $11 last year, while Pounamu scored at $21. Stratum Star ($10) also scored at double figure odds in 2016.

This year, Inspirational Girl has been installed as a $2.20 favourite with ladbrokes after the barrier draw, while Too Close The Sun is at $8.50. Dom To Shoot and Kay See fill the next line at the $9, while Watch Me Dance heads the rest at $11.

The ideal lead up form to the Kingston Town Stakes has traditionally been the Railway Stakes (1600m), held at Ascot a fortnight prior. Nine of the past 16 winners have come out of the Railway but only two of those have completed the double. Five were placed in the Railway before going on to win the Kingston Town. They were Moriarty, Luckygray, Early Express and Niconero on two occasions. Sniper’s Bullet (2009) and Modem (2004) are the two to achieve the double.

This year, Inspirational Girl won the Railway by nearly two lengths from Too Close The Sun, while Uni Time ran 3rd at big odds.

In this year’s Kingston Town Classic there are five gallopers that are aged three. Three of them are in the final field and they are Gemma’s Son, Dom To Shoot, Watch Me Dance. Snickerdoodledandy and Western Empire are emergencies.

The youngsters have a solid record, prevailing on seven occasions since 2000, including the past two with Kay Cee and Arcadia Queen. Both were fillies that came out of the Group 2 W.A. Guineas (1600m) Perfect Reflection in 2015 is another filly to win the race in recent times. She was trained by the Grant & Alana Williams team.

Watch Me Dance, Snickerdoodledandy and Western Empire are fillies. Western Empire is trained by Grant & Alana Williams, who also have the race favourite, Inspirational Girl, as well as Truly Great. They are among the successful trainer’s in the Kingston Town this millennium alongside David Hayes and Noel Lamey with two wins apiece. Lamey trained Old Comrade to victory in 2000 and 2001 before Lindsey Smith became the regular trainer of the former star galloper.

Neville Parnham prepared his third winner of this race last year, courtesy of Kay Cee, and is the most successful of the trainers since 2000. Parnham has Neufbosc and Platoon this year. Smith has Too Close The Sun.

Of the hoops, Paul Harvey and Steven Parnham have won the race on four occasions each since 2000, while William Pike and Brad Rawiler have picked up two wins apiece. Harvey rides Platoon this year, while Rawiler steers Gailo Chop. Pike is on the race favourite, Inspirational Girl.

Finally, it is worth noting that horses have been able to win from a wide variety of barriers. Sniper’s Bullet was able to win from barrier 16 in 2009, while Niconero won from 14 in 2008. The most successful gates to jump from have been 1, 2 and 10, with those positions accounting for eight of the 20 winners since 2000.

Inspirational Girl has drawn barrier 18 this year and is likely to come into 15 after the removal of the emergencies and/or scratchings. Cup Night, Arctic Stream and Neufbosc have drawn barriers 1, 2 and 8 respectively.

Selection based on the Kingston Town Classic winning trends.
On trends, it really looks like this is between Inspirational Girl and Too Close The Sun. Placegetters from the Railway have fared better than the winners but unlike many of those instances, Inspirational Girl is 2kg better at the weights. The wide barrier hasn’t been an issue in the past, while the Williams/Pike combination know how to win this.