South Australian Derby Tips & Preview 2023

Looking for South Australian Derby tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2023 South Australian Derby at Morphettville.

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY BETTING SNAPSHOT

The last start Australasian Oaks (2000m) runner-up, She’s Fit, has been installed as the $4.60 favourite with ladbrokes after the barrier draw ahead of Promises Kept at $6 and Aberfeldie Boy, Loco, at $8. 

Loco comes out of one of the key races for the Derby, having finished runner-up in the Chairman’s Stakes (2000m) and is at $10, while the Australian Derby (2400m) placegetter, Suizuro, is at $11. Red Sun Sensation ($13) heads Ain’t He Grand and High Approach at $15, Dunkel ($17), Gottabesavvy ($17) and Reservoir Dog ($18) are other fancies. 

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY FORM ANALYSIS

She’s Fit is the only filly in the race and comes off a narrow runner-up performance behind Affaire A Suivre in the Australasian Oaks (2000m). The West Aussie produced the fastest last 200m and was wide and back throughout but the winner had also endured a similar run before going for home early. 

Previously, the Daniel Morton-trained galloper missed behind the boys in the WATC Derby (2400m) at Ascot. She went 8.6 lengths faster than standard last time, which is the second best last start figure of any runner. 

Promises Kept is likely to need to produce a personal best to take this out but the Maher/Eustace stable are renowned for getting their youngsters to peak for races like this. He comes off a dominant win in the Bendigo St Leger Trial (2200m), scoring by three from Northern Barrage to go 4.7 lengths faster than standard benchmark and should have some upside. 

The Chairman’s Stakes is one of the key lead ups to this race and was taken out by Red Sun Sensation this year. The Peter Moody-trained galloper kept coming to overhaul the race favourite, Loco, who was a bit of a sitting duck late in the piece. 

The winner went 6.2 lengths faster than standard in the Chairman’s and 11.4 lengths faster in a high ratings race prior to that behind Gringotts at Sandown. Loco was runner-up that day, while Red Sun Sensation was solid from worse than midfield. 

Suizuro also comes out of the Chariman’s Stakes, running 3rd. He was tough in the Morphettville lead up, leading and sticking on but will need more of the same and more again after drawing barrier 20. He has led in two of his past three and ran on for 3rd in between runs at Randwick in the Australian Derby. High Approach was 5th in the Australian Derby and produced the fastest last 200m. He settled closer in the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) prior to that but faded into 7th. 

Aberfeldie Boy comes into calculations after taking out a $150,000 race at Pakenham on April 27, which saw the current Melbourne Cup (3200m) favourite, White Marlin, run 3rd. Tempo was very slow early on in that race and he went just 5.2 lengths slower than standard. But the son of So You Think has exposure up to the 2500m when an unlucky 3rd in the Victoria Derby last year, going 6.7 lengths faster. He should have improvement to come third up. 

Dunkel will be attempting to go some way towards what Explosive Jack did in 2021 by claiming the Tasmanian Derby (2200m) and the SA Derby. Explosive Jack also scored in the Australian Derby (2400m) that year and has since won the Sydney Cup (3200m). 

Dunkel has had one run since the Tasmanian Derby, finishing 9th in the Alister Clark Stakes (2040m) at Moonee Valley in March. He will be running on late but needs to do it off an eight-week break. 

Dunwoody comes in with the best last start benchmark figures of any runner, having gone 8.9 lengths faster than standard off a fast tempo when taking out the VRC St Leger (3000m) at Sandown on April 29. The Matt Cumani-trained galloper led all the way and comes in full of fitness. Nightsun ran on for 4th in the same race. 

Other hopes go to Ain’t He Grand and Bengal Boy. Ain’t He Grand has the Maher/Eustace polish and battled into 4th of five runners in the Frank Packer Plate (2000m) at Sydney on April 15. I wouldn’t be writing him off and he was a one length 5th at Group 2 level in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) prior to that. Bengal Boy overcame a wide run in transit to score in the Galilee Series Final (2400m) on April 15 at Sandown. 

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY TIPS AND BEST BETS

Tricky race with some of the key hopes drawing wide and the likes of Suizuro won’t have too much time to find a spot before the long bend as they pass the finishing post for the first time. He will look to roll forward and there are a number that can kick up on the inside and/or settle just behind. She’s Fit was excellent in the Australian Oaks but I am willing to work around the filly. Nothing wrong with the Chairman’s Stakes form and nothing to suggest that the winner, Red Sun Sensation, can’t go on with the job. He produced the fastest last 600m and 400m in that lead up and was solid in a strong form race prior. Always wary of the Maher/Eustace gallopers, especially after recent weeks in Adelaide and Promises Kept is the obvious danger but Red Sun Sensation should provide a solid contest at the quote.