Spring Champion Stakes Winning Trends
The Spring Champion Stakes (2000m) is the final Group 1 race for the spring in Sydney and we take a look at the Spring Champion Stakes winning trends.
The Randwick feature has been won by some quality gallopers over the years, including It’s A Dundeel (2012), Savabeel (2004), Tie The Knot (1997) and Nothin Leica Dane (1995).
The mighty Kingston Town (1979) is another big name to grace the honour roll, while last year’s winner was Shadow Hero.
When it comes to picking a winner for the $1 million race, there are a number of Spring Champion Stakes winning trends to take into account.
The Gloaming Stakes (1800m) has always been the ideal lead up and has provided seven of the past 10 winners and nine overall since 2000. Five of those nine winners also claimed the Gloaming, while the other four were runner-up in that lead up.
This trends clearly points to Love Tap and Street Dancer with that pair providing the exacta in the recent Gloaming. Bucharest ran 3rd, while Favreau was 4th.
Love Tap has been installed as the $3.70 joint favourite in early markets for the Spring Champion Stakes with NEDS, while Street Dancer is as much as $26 after finishing just under two lengths away.
There are a number that come out of different races, including Montefilia, who is vying for favouritism at the $3.70 quote. One of two fillies in the race alongside Miravalle, Montefilla claimed the Flight Stakes (1600m) last weekend. Two of the past four Spring Champion winners were fillies that had raced in the Flight Stakes, including Maid Of Heaven in 2018.
Five of the field of 15 come up from Melbourne, including Cherry Tortoni, who is a $6 chance with NEDS. He will have to defy history as no winner of the Spring Champion had its previous run in Melbourne.
Since the year 2000, every winner has finished in the top three at its previous start, except for Maid Of Heaven, who was 6th in the Flight Stakes (1600m) in 2018. Yankee Rose finished runner-up in the Flight Stakes in 2016 before winning the Spring Champion. However, she was later disqualified from the Flight Stakes due to a positive swab.
Love Tap will be out to join Shadow Hero as a favourite to have won the Spring Champion. However, the race has been a mixed one for the popular elects over the years.
In 2015, Vanbrugh ended an 11 year losing streak for horses that started as favourite. Thinkin’ Big missed out as a $3.40 chance in 2018 and had won the Gloaming at his previous starts. There have also been a couple of blowout results with Monaco Consul (2009) and Teranaba (2007) starting at $51. The average price of the winners since 2000 has been $10.70.
Horses in double figure odds this year are Miravelle at $15, while Bucharest, Choir and Wertheimer are $16. Favreau heads the rest at $21.
Miravelle is trained by Mark Newnham, who has prepared the past two winners. Other trainers that have had recent success in this race include David Payne and Chris Waller. Payne takes Montefilia into the race, while Waller has Global Quest and Bucharest.
Of the jockeys in this year’s Spring Champion, Josh Parr has ridden two of the last six winners and will be out for more success aboard Montefilia. Rachel King rides Choir and enjoyed success on Maid Of Heaven in 2018.
Finally, it is interesting to note that gallopers have been able to win from a wide range of barriers and that it may even be an advantage to draw out. 11 of the 19 winners since the year 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field.
Of the favoured runners this year, Love Tap has drawn barrier 7, Montefillia is in barrier 1, while Cherry Tortoni is in barrier 4.
Selection according to Spring Champion Stakes winning trends.
Montefilia creates plenty of interest in coming out of the Flight Stakes but the longer term trends suggest the top two out of the Gloaming is the way to go. Love Tap can win, despite the moderate record of favourites in this race