Toorak Handicap Winning Trends

The Toorak Handicap (1600m) is one of the big races on what is a huge day at Caulfield on Saturday and we take a look at the Toorak Handicap winning trends.

The time-honoured Handicap has been won in the past by the likes of More Joyous in 2010, Umrum (1999/2000), Gunsynd (1971) and Tobin Bronze (1967), while Fierce Impact notched up victory last year.

Picking a winner can be a tricky proposition in some respects, due to the conditions of the race but we have looked through the Toorak Handicap winning trends since the year 2000 and eliminated some of the guesswork for you.

The ideal lead up form to the Toorak has generally been the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) held at Caulfield a fortnight earlier. 10 of the winners since 2000 had their final start in that lead up, including six of the past eight.

Trust In A Gust (2014), Barely A Moment (2005) and Regal Roller (2004) completed the double. This year, the trifecta horses in Behemoth, Dollar For Dollar and Pretty Brazen won’t be seen in the Toorakt, leaving Achernar Star (4th), Reykjavik (5th), Mandela Effect (9th), Age Of Chivalry (10th), Cascadian (11th) and Harlech (15th).

For fans of any of that group, four of the 10 winners of the Toorak that came out the Rupert Clarke were unplaced in the 1400m lead up, including Show A Heart, who was 15th in 2001 before turning the tables.

In early betting markets this year, Buffalo River has been installed as a $3.70 favourite with Sportsbet ahead of Junipal at $5 and I Am Superman at $8.50. Cascadian and Superstorm are on the next line at $12, while Mr Quickie and Sirrconi head the rest at $14.

For fans of I Am Superman, who took out the recent Shannon Stakes at Rosehill, six winners since 2000 have had their previous run in the harbour city including Fierce Impact and He’s Our Rokkii in 2016. Shot Of Thunder took out the Shannon Stakes in 2002 before scoring at Caulfield.

It is interesting to note that 15 of the 20 winners since 2000 have started at single figure odds with nine outright favourites winning. Fierce Impact won at $18 last year but the likes of Land Of Plenty and Tosen Stardom have scored for favourite backers in recent years. The average winning price since 2000 is $8.95.

Mr Quickie carries top weight of 59kg this year. Top-weights have generally fared well in the Toorak, especially in comparison to the Rupert Clarke Stakes. More Joyous, King Mufhasa, Solzenitsyn, and Lucky Hussler all carted 58kg to victory when they won. Tosen Stardom carried top weight of 57.5kg in 2017.

The minimum weight this year is 53kg and two winners have carried the minimum to victory since 2000. Solzenitsyn picked up the first of his two Toorak wins with the minimum, which was 52kg in 2012, while Allez Wonder also won with that weight. Buffalo River carries 53kg this year. The average weight of the winning horses since 2000 is 55kg.

No horses carry that weight this year but Harlech has 54.5kg, while Junipal and Age Of Chivalry have 55.5kg. Weights have been raised by a kilo this year due to Covid-19 considerations so the likes of Achernar Star, Sikandarabad and Sirrconi (all 56kg) can be considered with this trend.

The Toorak has generally attracted big fields and this year’s edition is no exception. Drawing a good barrier can be crucial but nine of the 20 winners since 2000 have been able to come from a double digit barrier. The last three have drawn 15,18 and 16.

Four-year-olds have been more successful than any other age group and have won eight of the 19 editions of the race since 2000. Horses aged four this year include Superstorm and Harlech.

Selection according to the Toorak Handicap winning trends.

I’m inclined to look outside this year’s Rupert Clarke and it is I Am Superman that trends well for this race.

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