Turnbull Stakes Winning Trends

The Turnbull Stakes (2000m) has been won by some champion gallopers over the years and we take a look at the Turnbull Stakes winning trends.

The Flemington Group 1 is traditionally a classic lead up race to the spring majors and boasts an impressive honour roll of gallopers that have saluted in the Flemington feature, including champions of the ilk of Makybe Diva (2005), Northerly (2002) and Sunline (2001).

In 2018 it was Winx that made it back to back victories in the race that is worth $500,000 in prize money with a stirring come-from-behind performance to defeat Youngstar. Kings Will Dream took out the 2019 edition of the race

A field of 15 have accepted this year with Verry Elleegant heading early markets with sportsbet at the $4.60 quote. The Waller mare, who has also accepted for the Hill Stakes (1900m) in Sydney, is ahead of Surprise Baby at $6.50, while Master Of Wine ($8.50), Superstorm ($9.50) and Finche ($9.50) are others under double figure odds.

King Of Leogrance is a $12 fancy, while last year’s winner, Kings Will Dream, heads the rest at $15.

Looking at the Turnbull Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things to keep in mind when it comes to picking a winner and we see that is has generally been a mixed one for favourite backers.

Nine favourites have won the race since 2000. Winx won as a $1.10 favourite in 2018 and as a $1.20 fancy in 2017. Hartnell scored comfortably at $1.95 in 2016. Green Moon won at $4 in 2012, following December Draw at $2.10 in 2011.

Winx, Hartnell and Sunline (2000) have started at ‘odds on’ since 2000. Hartnell smashed a field of 12 in 2016. Interestingly, Sunline went down at the odds of $1.45 in 2000 to Fairway, who scored at $11.

Other upsets occurred in 2013 when Happy Trails scored as a $26 chance and in 2008, Littorio scored at $41 as the bubble burst for Weekend Hussler. The average price of the winners since 2000 has been $9.

For fans of Verry Elleegant, the Chris Waller-trained mare has drawn barrier 9 of 15. Nine of the 20 winners have drawn in the second half of the field since 2000. 10 winners have drawn between barriers 1 to 5. Surprise Baby, Toffee Tongue, Dalasan, Master Of Wine and Aktau occupy those spots this year.

An interesting statistic is the domination of six-year-olds in the event. Horses belonging to this age category have won the Turnbull 10 times since 2000. Four-year-olds have won on seven occasions.

Surprise Baby, Master Of Wine and King Of Leogrance, are the six-year-olds this year, while Warning, Dalasan, Superstorm and Toffee Tongue are four.

Verry Elleegant, Oceanex and Toffee Tongue are the mares this year. Female horses have won this race six times since 2000 with Lucia Valentina and Devil Moon joining the likes of Winx, Maybe Diva and Sunline.

The most successful trainer since 2000 has been Chris Waller with four wins. He has picked up the past three. Waller’s wins came courtesy of Preferement, Winx (twice) and Kings Will Dream. He has a powerful hand this year with Kings Will Dream, Verry Elleegant, Finche and Toffee Tongue.

Robert Hickmott, Mark Kavanagh and Lee Freedman have two wins apiece. Hickmott has Django Freedman. Hickmott was at the helm of Macedon Lodge for the Williams family when preparing Green Moon and Zipping. The Williams’ have King Of Leogrance in the navy blue and white colours this year.

Of the jockeys in this year’s field, Jye McNeil will be going for back to back on Kings Will Dream, while Craig Williams and Michael Rodd are other former winners. They are on Surprise Baby and Master Of Wine.

Finally, the key lead up race to the Turnbull has generally been the Underwood Stakes (1800m), which has provided six winners since 2000 but with the change in dates of that lead up, none have come via the Underwood since Happy Trails in 2013.

Five of the past six winners had their last start in Sydney, running in either the George Main Stakes (1600m) or the Hill Stakes (1900m). Verry Elleegant ran 4th in the George Main this year.

Four winners since 2000 had their last runs in the Feehan Stakes (1600m). Surprise Baby was runner-up in that race this year. A number of contenders come out of the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) this year and Kings Will Dream is the only winner of the Tunrbull since 2000 to have had their previous start in that race.

Selection according to the Turnbull Stakes winning trends:

Surprise Baby

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