Railway Stakes Tips & Preview 2022
Winterbottom Stakes Tips & Preview 2022
Looking for Winterbottom Stakes tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot.
WINTERBOTTOM STAKES BETTING SNAPSHOT
It is tight at the top of the market with Rothfire holding favouritism at the $5 quote with Palmerbet, just ahead of the Godolphin galloper, Vilana, at $6, while the 2020 winner, Elite Street, is also at $6.
The stablemate of Vilana, Paulel, is at $10 ahead of The Astrologist, Miss Conteki and the last start winner, This’ll Testya with that trio all at $11. My Bella Mae is at $13, while Red Can Man heads the rest at $21.
WINTERBOTTOM STAKES FORM ANALYSIS
Six runners come over after having their last run in either Victoria or New South Wales. Three of those were last seen in the Darley Champions Sprint (1200m) that was taken out by Roch ‘N’ Horse from Nature Strip at Flemington on November 5.
They are The Astrologist (6th) Rothfire (8th) and Paulele (11th). The latter was beaten just over two lengths. Rothfire seemingly had every chance but was just over a length away from the winner. He has been solid in Group 1 company all spring.
They went slow early on in the Darley Champions Sprint. All three were solid and The Astrologist went 8.8 lengths faster than standard. His peak figure of 13.6 lengths faster than standard was set at headquarters. That is better than what any horse in this race has produced. The Leon & Troy Corstens-trained galloper does seem to save his best for Flemington but gets the services of Willie Pike and has drawn barrier 2.
Vilana might have a bit of upside on some of these and has won two of his past three, while he did well to come 8th in the Golden Eagle (1500m) from a hopeless position two starts ago at Rosehill.
Since then, the four-year-old has come out and won well in the $1 million Hunter (1300m) at Newcastle, going 5.2 lengths faster than standard off what was a slow tempo. He is capable of raising the bar.
Others to come over from the east are Beau Rossa, who was 4th in the Rising Fast Stakes (1200m) at Group 3 level when resuming at Flemington, while Kissonallforcheeks returns to the west after some competitive runs in Melbourne over the spring.
Of the locals, five runners come out of the Colonel Reeves Stakes (1100m) that was held at Ascot on November 12 and on that occasion it was This’ll Testya that settled just behind the leaders before storming clear at the business end to score by just under a length from Red Can Man. She went 11.2 lengths faster than standard in that race and that is the best last start figure of any runner.
Worth noting that her personal best of 11.2 lengths faster came over the 1200m at Ascot earlier this year. Red Can Man settled handy in the Colonel Reeves before sticking on, while Indian Pacific led and faded late for 3rd, beaten three lengths.
Elite Street didn’t produce his best but was runner-up in the Winterbottom last year and can’t be written off. Miss Conteki produced the fastest last 400m on the entire meeting to run 5th.
My Bella Mae creates interest as the sole three-year-old in the race and is unbeaten in three starts. Her personal best came on debut when going seven lengths faster than standard and she gets her shot at this grade after cruising to a comfortable win in the Placid Ark Stakes (1200m) a fortnight ago.
WINTERBOTTOM STAKES SPEED MAP
We should see plenty of speed in the race with the likes of Massimo, Red Can Man and Indian Pacific sure to roll forward from out wide. Rothfire will try to hold the lead or box seat from barrier 3, while This’ll Testya, The Astrologist and Sniparoochy are among a number that will be handy. Expect Vilana to try to get somewhere better than midfield. Elite Street, Miss Conteki and Stageman are among the backmarkers.
WINTERBOTTOM STAKES TIPS AND BEST BETS
Always hard to line up the form of those that come across the Nullarbor against the locals. I am a big fan of what Vilana has been doing of late and he should get the race run to suit but can’t afford to get as far back as what he did in the Golden Eagle. He must be included in quaddies alongside the likes of This’ll Testya, Miss Conteki and The Astrologist. The one I am settling on for the win is Elite Street. He has been a big improver on benchmark figures when second up in all of his preparations and improved eight lengths at this stage in the autumn when claiming the Roma Cup, going 11.7 lengths faster than standard, while at his preparation last year he went 10 lengths faster than standard when winning over the 1000m at Ascot at this stage. The Daniel Morton-trained galloper will appreciate what should be a solid tempo and he likes the track and trip, having won this race in 2020 and coming runner-up last year. Brad Rawiler can tuck in somewhere with cover from barrier 7. Best value in the race is This’ll Testya, who was too good for Elite Street last time. She is absolutely flying at the moment. Once regarded as a 1000m specialist, the seven-year-old seems to be better over the 1100m-1200m distance range as she gets older and when taking a sit. She is capable of running a big race.
