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Melbourne Cup Expert Tips $41 Chance to Win in 2023
When it comes to finding the Melbourne Cup winner, not many form experts can boast the record of racingbase.com.au tipster Aaron Hamilton.
In 11 years as racingbase.com.au’s head tipster, Hamilton has tipped the winner on five occasions including Gold Trip at $26 last year as his Melbourne Cup tip.
And while that strike rate is less than 50% and may not seem that impressive, the Melbourne Cup is one of the hardest races to predict with up to 24 runners each year.
In fact, the past six year is really where Hamilton has shone having picked the winner four times as well as a runner-up.
So, who is he tipping in the 2023 Melbourne Cup?
Hamilton is keen on the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained ASHRUN who had been off the scene for three years due to a tendon injury – hardly the recipe for a Cup winner.
But, according to Hamilton, form and weight are the two most important factors when it comes to finding the Melbourne, and Ashrun ticks both these boxes.
“I can’t believe this horse is $41 heading into Tuesday’s main event,” said Hamilton.
“He was flying home with Verry Elleegant in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, and she came out and won the next year.
“This bloke gained entry via the Lexus, and then had to back up in the Cup which clearly isn’t ideal for a European-trained stayer.”
“If he didn’t get injured, and backed up the following year, I think he would have been runner-up to Verry Elleegant, so maybe the injury was a blessing in disguise for the owner’s Cup aspirations.”
Ashrun heads into the 2023 Melbourne Cup with just three runs under his belt, and he’s improved significantly in each and would be expected to improve again on the first Tuesday of November.
“We know he stays the trip as he was finishing hard in 2020,” said Hamilton.
“And the Maher and Eustace stable certainly know how to prepare a horse for the great race having claimed first and third prize last year.
“And the booking of Kerrin McEvoy sure is a bonus seeing he’s won the Cup three times.
“Ashrun horse ticks a lot of boxes for a $41 chance.”
As for the odds, European visitor Vauban is favourite for the 2023 Melbourne Cup at $4.60 for trainer Willie Mulllins who also saddles up Absurde ($9).
“The Mullins pair will take a power of beating,” said Hamilton.
“Vauban was ultra impressive winning at Ascot and then went into his last race so big that he shouldn’t have been able to win the way he did.
“Mullins will have him peaking on the day and he’ll be hard to hold out.
“But the Cup is a handicap race and Vauban has to carry 55kg while Ashrun carries 51.5kg.
“That means Vauban needs to be seven lengths better than Ashrun and I’m not sure he is.”
Note: Ashrun has shortened into $31 overnight with the scratching of Cleveland
