Gawler Racing Tips 24 June — can Maldivica do it again?
Ballarat Racing Tips 24 June — can Ultra Blue stay on top?
Ballarat, and a tiny card that still throws a proper question
If you only look at the race count, you might scroll past this meeting. Don’t. Ballarat’s synthetic can turn a small program into a very readable betting day because patterns matter here: barriers, race shape, and whether a horse actually enjoys the surface.
The headline puzzle is simple: Ultra Blue arrives in ripping form (that 651321 sequence doesn’t lie), but he does it carrying top weight in a race where a few others get the right map and the right run. That’s where punting discipline comes in. You don’t need four bets. You need one or two you can stand behind.
These Ballarat racing tips give you a race-by-race opinion, with the course angles that are meaningful (not the one-start noise), plus the one race I’m happiest to lean into.
Ballarat, the setup
All four races are on the All Weather. With the going blank on the sheet, I’m treating it as the usual Ballarat synthetic: fair enough if you’re in rhythm, punishing if you over-race or get caught chasing wide.
Limited course form across today’s fields, and a lot of it sits in the 1 to 2 run bracket. That’s a note, not a weapon. Where the course data does matter today is in the rider and trainer layers.
Jockeys with genuine Ballarat sample sizes (5+ rides):
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Allen | 59 | 8 | 34 | 13.56 | 57.63 |
| Patrick Moloney | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 50.00 |
| W Gordon | 34 | 8 | 11 | 23.53 | 32.35 |
| Declan Bates | 34 | 6 | 10 | 17.65 | 29.41 |
Trainers with enough Ballarat volume to trust (5+ runners):
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T & C Mcevoy | 19 | 6 | 12 | 31.58 | 63.16 |
| Tom Dabernig | 15 | 3 | 10 | 20.00 | 66.67 |
| C Maher | 43 | 8 | 23 | 18.60 | 53.49 |
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Race-by-race Ballarat predictions
Race 1: Global Turf Mdn Plate — 12:25, 2297m
The market will probably try to make this a “who deserves it” maiden. I’m treating it as a staying maiden where the right rider and the right run pattern matters more than the prettiest last-start finish.
I want to be with Barossa Valley. The form line 0-5404 isn’t sexy, but the profile says he’s not hopeless either, and the booking of John Allen on a Maher runner at Ballarat is the kind of intent I listen to. Allen rides this track as well as anyone and he lands a gate (3) that should let him hold a spot and avoid doing dumb work.
Maher also has a deep enough history here to trust the placement: he wins just under one in five at Ballarat and hits the frame more than half the time, and that’s from proper volume (43 runners). It’s not a miracle stat, it’s a baseline edge.
The danger is Bull Run for Waller with Beau Mertens. He’s been around the mark (2-43) and looks the type who’ll stay, but Mertens has had six rides here without a top-three finish, so if this turns into a tactical sit-sprint, I’d rather be with Allen making the decisions.
Play: Win bet Barossa Valley. Small saver quinella with Bull Run if you want coverage, but keep it simple.
Race 2: Brandt (Bm64) — 13:00, 1312m
Here’s the contrast race: one side has the stable that traditionally targets this track well, the other has the horse with the last-start spike that punters love to follow.
I’m sticking with Aloisi. The form is light (61-) but the setup is strong: Price and Kent have enough Ballarat evidence to be respected, and Beau Mertens taking the ride looks like an “expecting to be in the finish” booking. Barrier 2 keeps him out of trouble, and at 1312m on this surface I’d rather trust the horse who can land close than the one needing everything to go right from midfield.
The one that can beat him is Sea Trader, coming off 8-1501. That last-start win earns respect, and if they dawdle early he’s the type who can pinch it with a well-timed move. The knock for me is that Alana Kelly’s Ballarat record is workable but not a selling point, and from gate 5 she’ll have to make decisions early.
Play: Win bet Aloisi. If the market overreacts to Sea Trader’s last-start win and Aloisi drifts, I’d be happier again.
Race 3: Porter Plant Mdn Plate — 13:35, 1312m
Does this become a “maiden who keeps finding one better” story, or is it the day the one with the right map finally gets it done? I’m leaning to the former, but with a caveat.
Thinkyahot looks the most reliable horse in the race. That 52-223 strip screams consistency, and Zac Spain is a sensible booking around Ballarat. He’s ridden 13 here, and while the win tally is modest, he’s been competitive often enough. From gate 6, he should land one off them with cover and get his chance.
I’m keeping respect for Peiriant (235) as the danger because he’s already shown he’ll turn up and run to a level. If Thinkyahot gets caught in a pocket from that draw, Peiriant is the one who can roll past late and make it hurt.
One worth a mention at odds is French Accord, the debutant with Patrick Moloney. Moloney doesn’t win often here, but he places half his Ballarat rides, and from barrier 1 he can give a first-starter every chance to travel and present.
Play: Win bet Thinkyahot. If French Accord is double figures, a small each-way dabble makes sense purely on map and rider profile.
Race 4: Whitford Liquid Waste (Bm66) — 14:10, 1640m
The market problem here is that people will price the top weight as if it doesn’t matter. On this surface, over this trip, it absolutely can, because chasing wide while giving weight away is a fast way to look ordinary.
Still, I’m not getting cute. Ultra Blue is the bet. His recent run of form reads like a horse that turns up every time, and the 90-day window backs it up: four runs for two wins and he’s been in the placings every time. That’s not “lucky”, that’s a horse in a purple patch. Barrier 1 is the other big tick. Jade Smith just needs to ride him like the best horse, not like a sitting duck: hold a spot, control the corner, make them come around you.
The horse that makes it interesting is Comic Hero. The form (51-313) is hard to knock, and while Cian Macredmond’s Ballarat numbers aren’t flash, this gelding has already placed on his only start at the track, so he’s not walking into unknown conditions. If Ultra Blue over-races under the big weight, Comic Hero is the one I see taking advantage.
There’s also a sneaky map case for Princeofnottingham from gate 2 if Moloney can settle him and peel at the right time. Moloney’s Ballarat placing rate is strong enough to keep him in mind for multiples.
Play: Win bet Ultra Blue. Box exacta with Comic Hero as the saver. This is the best betting race on the card because we’re dealing with real current form, not guesswork.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
The plays
If you’re trying to turn Ballarat best bets into a four-leg circus, you’ll get what you deserve. The cleaner way is to anchor your day around the one runner with proper recent momentum and the right draw.
NAP: Ultra Blue (Race 4, 14:10). He’s hitting the line every time and his last 90 days reads like a horse that’s simply better than this grade when he gets his conditions.
Value: French Accord (Race 3, 13:35) if the market lets you have a price. Barrier 1 and Moloney’s habit of putting them in the finish at this track makes him the “could be better than we’ve seen” play.
Banker for multis: Ultra Blue again. I’m not pretending the weight is irrelevant, but the map gives him every chance to absorb it.
Each-way profile: Thinkyahot (Race 3). He keeps showing up, and these races often go to the one who does the least wrong.
Course angle: When the Mcevoy stable lands a runner on this surface, you pay attention. They win often enough here to treat their runners as live, not speculative.
Next Ballarat meeting, I’ll be watching whether riders keep overcommitting early from wide gates on the synthetic, because that’s where this track quietly hands out freebies to the patient ones.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Ballarat today?
Ballarat kicks off at 12:25 with the Global Turf Mdn Plate (Race 1).
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Ballarat?
On meaningful samples, John Allen has the strongest Ballarat profile on today’s card with 59 rides and 34 placings. From the trainers, T & C Mcevoy stand out: 19 runners at Ballarat for 6 wins and 12 placings. C Maher also brings volume you can trust here with 43 runners and 23 placings.
What are the best bets at Ballarat today?
The strongest of these Ballarat racing tips is Ultra Blue in Race 4 (14:10). His recent form is backed by a hot last-90-days run: four starts, two wins, and he’s been in the placings every time.
Where can I find the best odds for Ballarat races?
Prices can shift late on these smaller programs. Check your preferred bookmaker’s race market close to jump time for Ballarat odds, and always compare at least two books before you bet. Odds feeds weren’t available at time of writing for this meeting, so treat any early prices as provisional.
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