Adelaide Cup Preview & Best Bets – Monday, March 13

Craig Lewis

in Bets of the Day 12 Mar 2023

Our form expert provides Adelaide Cup tips for today’s horse racing at Morphettville Racecourse and gives his best bets.

Adelaide Cup Key Stats

Key stats leading into the Adelaide Cup of 2023 highlight the need for horses to be drawn out of inside to middle gates. Of the last ten years, only two horses have won the Cup from outside gates. King Of Leogrance was an even-money favorite when scoring from barrier 14 in 2020, while Purple Smile won the 2018 cup as a roughie from gate 17.

The lead-up form out of the local Adelaide races has been disappointing to say the least, with nine out of the last ten winners taking their lead-up run in Victoria. Norsqui, the other, ran fourth in the Launceston Cup ten years ago to claim the 2014 edition.

Favorites and double figure rough shots sport similar figures, having each won three out of the last ten running’s. It is worth noting however that horses on the second line of betting have won the other four cups in that time. This means that the winner generally comes from the first two in line of betting.

King Of Leogrance has also been the only last-start winner of the Adelaide Cup, which would seem a surprising stat given the favoured betting on the winners. The success rate of the victors has also been 50/50 on those who were placed or otherwise going into the two-mile handicap.

The last key stat to touch on is the fate of the top weights, with no horse carrying the number 1 saddle cloth saluting in the past ten years. Daqiansweet Junior was able to win with 56.5kg while the top weight in his race lumped only half-a-kilo heavier with 57kg. Perhaps Fanatic was the big one. She has been the only mare to win in the past decade, and she did it while carrying 57.5kg. No horse has carried higher than such to score in recent time. Having the mare’s allowance up her sleeve did get her in at 1.5 kg under the top weight of 59kg that year.

We haven’t quite got all our ducks lined up in a row as far as the key stats are concerned as we land on our selections this year. HIGHLAND JAKK and AURORA’S SYMPHONY are both last-start winners who will have to buck the trend. Neither come from the first two lines of betting either, though we are happy to be against market opinion on the two top weights.

There are a few horses who may go forward, such as Rebel Raider and Wolf Prince. Grand Promenade won’t be too far away, and neither will Persan. Pushing up underneath those should see Wagon Wheel gaining a lovely run in transit. We’re happy to see both Aurora’s Symphony and Highland Jakk drawn alongside each other, and they may race together throughout. They should find themselves in a sweet spot whether the speed does go on up front or not.

Adelaide Cup Tips 13/03/2023

BEST BET 🏆

Race 7 No. 8 HIGHLAND JAKK – ($8)

Highland Jakk also has to break the recent run of outs of the Adelaide form. He received the absolute gun-run from Teo Nugent to land the Group 3 2600 metre Lord Reims here last start. Teo loves riding at Morphettville and he can give Highland Jakk the run of the race once more. Both Highland Jakk and Stars Of Carrum, who ran second behind him, are beautifully weighted with 53kgs on Monday.

BEST VALUE 💰

Race 7 No. 4 AURORA’S SYMPHONY – ($11)

Aurora’s Symphony finds himself less well-off in the weights, having to go up half a kilo for his Group 3 win in the Launceston Cup. Chief Handicapper Craig Kutcher is sending punters a message there. Symon Wilde brings Aurora’s Symphony back for another crack after his luckless run last year. He had the poor misfortune of drawing wide before becoming shuffled back after finding cover. Damien Oliver made a bold mid-race move to tackle for the lead from a long way out. His horse still going strong to the furlong before succumbing to the earlier pressure. Wilde has now won back-to-back Colac and Launceston Cups with Aurora’s Symphony as he again leads into an Adelaide Cup. The difference this year, however, is that he’s here at only his third run this prep. Wilde had brought him across from Launceston last year while at the end of a successful campaign.