Bulldogs vs Knights Preview: NRL Round 4 Tips & Predictions | Updated March 2026
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions Preview: AFL Round 5 Tips & Predictions
Barossa Park is doing North Melbourne no favours here. It’s the sort of neutral, early-season road-stop venue that strips away comfort and asks a simple question: who can impose their identity fastest?
North have started 2026 like a side that’s finally sick of “green shoots” chat. They’re 3-1 and sitting 5th, they’re competing like their careers depend on it, and they’ve got a genuine match-winner up front. But Brisbane are the kind of opponent that punishes good intentions. On the numbers, the Lions have been a cleaner ball-moving side through four rounds, and the prediction models are treating this like a mismatch. Not a coin flip. A mismatch.
That’s why this game is fascinating for AFL tips people. The ladder says “North are ahead.” The underlying profile says “Brisbane are still Brisbane.” And the truth, as always, sits in the contest: can North’s pressure and surge footy make Brisbane play ugly for long enough, or do the Lions’ midfield class and forward polish turn this into a long afternoon?
Form guide
Let’s start with the ladder reality. North Melbourne have banked wins early and deserve their spot in the eight conversation: 5th (3-1, 115.3%). Brisbane, by their standards, are still clunking into gear: 9th (2-2, 110.6%). If you only look at those ranks, you’d think the Roos should be favoured at a “home” game.
But the way the two sides are getting their scores tells a sharper story.
North’s best sign is that they’re not relying on one neat formula. They’ve kicked 58 goals from four games, which is a genuinely healthy return, and they’re doing it without winning the disposal count by a mile. They’re averaging 16.3 disposals per player per game as a team profile, which is solid rather than dominant, but they’re making their possessions matter. They’ve also brought an edge: 234 tackles across four rounds is a statement of intent. That’s the kind of heat that can drag a fancier side into a scrap.
Brisbane’s profile is more “contender-like” even with the 2-2 record. They’re ahead of North on overall ball movement volume and territory generation: 1577 disposals to North’s 1495, and 225 inside 50s to North’s 204. They’ve also gained more territory with ball in hand, posting 24,748 metres gained to North’s 22,760. The Lions are getting the game played in their front half more often.
The part North will like is this: Brisbane have been a bit looser with the ball than their best versions, coughing up 277 turnovers (North are on 256). If North can turn that into repeat entries and chaos goals, that’s their path. If Brisbane tidy that up, the Roos will spend too long chasing shadows.
| 2026 (after 4 games) | North Melbourne | Brisbane |
|---|---|---|
| Ladder position | 5th (3-1) | 9th (2-2) |
| Inside 50s (total) | 204 | 225 |
| Tackles (total) | 234 | 185 |
| Metres gained (total) | 22,760 | 24,748 |
| Turnovers (total) | 256 | 277 |
One more form note that matters: North’s scoring has a genuine spearhead. Nick Larkey has 14 goals in four games, which has him equal-third in the AFL for total goals after Round 4. That’s not “playing well.” That’s “opposition coaches are losing sleep.”
Key matchups
Lachie Neale vs Luke Davies-Uniacke is the centre square heartbeat. Neale is still doing Neale things: 115 disposals and 30 clearances through four games, averaging 28.8 touches and 7.5 clearances. He’s not kicking goals, but he’s driving field position and first use. Davies-Uniacke’s season is trending into that same “I’m the problem you can’t solve” territory: 109 disposals and 25 clearances, with a hefty 52 contested possessions. If North are serious about beating a finals-level midfield, LDU can’t just compete. He has to win moments and hurt Brisbane on turnover with surge from stoppage.
North’s pressure game vs Brisbane’s ball use is the broader battle. North’s 234 tackles tells you they’re hunting in packs. Brisbane’s advantage is they’re moving it more and getting it forward more (225 inside 50s). The match will be decided by whether Brisbane can keep their turnover count from becoming a gift-wrapped scoring source. Give North enough messy ball, and Larkey gets looks. Keep it clean, and North are forced to defend for longer stretches than they want.
Nick Larkey vs Brisbane’s key backs is the most obvious, and the most dangerous. Larkey’s not just kicking goals; he’s creating chains, with 29 score involvements already. If Brisbane defend him with one bloke and no plan for the drop-of-the-ball chaos, he’ll feast. If they spoil early and then rebound with purpose, the Roos can get stranded behind the ball and start burning petrol.
And don’t ignore Charlie Cameron as the momentum shifter. He’s got 8 goals for the year and his pressure is up too (14 tackles). In a game that might tilt on a five-minute burst, he’s the Lion most likely to turn “even” into “gone.”
Head to head
This matchup has been rough viewing for North fans more often than not. Brisbane have won 7 of the last 10 meetings, with one draw, and three of those wins have been emphatic: 112-42 (2024), 152-77 (2023) and 156-48 (2022). Even last year’s meeting was a 71-71 draw, which tells you North can compete, but it also tells you Brisbane still tend to control the terms.
The only caution flag with leaning too hard on history is venue context. Barossa Park is not the Gabba. It’s not Marvel. It’s a different day, different deck, different travel routine. Still, if you’re looking for a psychological edge, Brisbane have it. They’ve walked into this matchup expecting to win for the better part of a decade.
Prediction & betting
The models are not sitting on the fence, and neither am I. Brisbane’s profile screams “better team than their record,” and North’s profile screams “real improvement, but still learning how to beat top-end midfield systems.”
Across the available prediction sources for this match, the aggregate has Brisbane winning with around 83.7% confidence and a projected margin of 36.4 points. Plenty of individual models go harder: there are calls in the 40 to 50+ range, with the most bullish pushing to 57.
I’m a touch less aggressive than the coldest models because North’s tackle heat is genuine and they can make games uncomfortable, but I’m still landing on Brisbane comfortably.
Racingbase tip: Brisbane Lions by 28 points.
Best bet (line): Brisbane Lions line if you can get anything around -18.5 to -24.5. The reason is simple: Brisbane are generating more entries (225 inside 50s to 204), more territory (24,748m gained to 22,760m), and the models agree it’s not a one-kick game.
Betting angle I like (player): Nick Larkey anytime multi-goals. He’s sitting on 14 goals for the season (equal-third in the AFL) and North’s clearest path to staying in touch is leaning into his one-on-one threat. Even if Brisbane win, Larkey can still “win his matchup” and cash a bet.
Odds note: bookmaker prices are not available via the current data feed, so I can’t quote a best price or shop the market here. If your book is hanging a short number on Brisbane because of ladder position, that’s where the value conversation starts.
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Same-game thought: Brisbane head-to-head plus Larkey 2+ goals is the narrative bet. It captures both likely truths: the Lions are the stronger side, and North’s scoring is still most reliably coming off their key forward.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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FAQ
Who is favoured to win North Melbourne vs Brisbane?
Brisbane are favoured by the prediction models. The overall aggregate model has Brisbane winning with 83.7% confidence and an expected margin around 36 points.
Where do North Melbourne and Brisbane sit on the ladder?
After four games, North Melbourne are 5th at 3-1. Brisbane are 9th at 2-2.
What stat shapes this matchup most?
Territory and access. Brisbane have generated more forward entries with 225 inside 50s compared to North’s 204, and they’ve gained more ground with ball in hand (24,748 metres gained to 22,760). If that holds, Brisbane will create more scoring shots.
Which players should I watch?
For North: Nick Larkey (14 goals, equal-third in the AFL) and Luke Davies-Uniacke (avg 27.3 disposals, avg 6.3 clearances). For Brisbane: Lachie Neale (avg 28.8 disposals, avg 7.5 clearances) and Charlie Cameron (8 goals and strong forward-half pressure with 14 tackles).
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