Adelaide vs St Kilda Preview: AFL Round 6 Tips & Predictions
North Melbourne vs Richmond Preview: AFL Round 6 Tips & Predictions
Docklands games have a way of exposing teams that can’t defend in space. The ball zips, the angles are cleaner, and if your midfield can’t keep the heat on, your back six gets asked impossible questions for two hours.
That’s why I’m leaning hard into North Melbourne here. Not because I think they’re a finished product, but because the first five rounds say they’ve moved from “promising” to “dangerous” quicker than most expected. They sit 7th (3-2) after Round 5, they’re scoring well enough to win ordinary games, and their best players are stacking repeatable numbers. Richmond, meanwhile, are 18th (0-5) and the worrying part isn’t just the losses. It’s the way the Tigers are getting dragged into long defensive shifts, turning the ball over, and then having to defend again.
If you’re looking for AFL tips without a thousand maybes: this is a good week to back the Kangaroos to control territory and generate more clean shots than Richmond can match.
Form guide
The ladder context matters because it tells you who’s playing “to a system” versus who’s playing “to survive”. North Melbourne are 7th with a 3-2 record and a healthy 105.88% percentage. That’s not a fluke number built on one freak result either. Across five games they’ve kicked 67 goals and moved the ball with enough purpose to put real pressure on opposition defences.
The team profile is also pretty consistent: North have piled up 1,845 disposals (that’s 369 a game), with 248 inside 50s (about 49.6 a game) and 186 clearances (37.2 a game). Those last two are the key for this matchup. They’re not just “getting it”, they’re giving themselves repeat entries, and that’s exactly how you stress a side that’s already leaking confidence.
Richmond come in 0-5, rooted to the bottom with a 56.36% percentage. The raw scoring output jumps off the page: only 41 goals for the season so far. Even if you say “it’s early”, five games is enough sample to call it what it is: they’re struggling to generate enough quality looks. They’ve actually had a similar volume of inside 50s to North (241, or 48.2 a game), but it’s the type of entries and the fallout that’s killing them. Richmond have coughed up 357 turnovers (about 71.4 a game), compared to North’s 315 (about 63 a game). At Docklands, that extra 8-9 turnovers a week turns into repeat rebound scores very quickly.
And here’s the part I can’t ignore: Richmond’s midfield is working, but it’s working uphill. They’ve got 162 clearances and 608 contested possessions as a team, which isn’t a total collapse, yet the scoreboard keeps telling you the same story. They win a bit of the ball, then lose the next phase. If North get on top at the contest and then keep the ball alive in their front half, Richmond will be defending for long stretches again.
| Category (2026, Rounds 1-5) | North Melbourne | Richmond |
|---|---|---|
| Record (ladder rank) | 3-2 (7th) | 0-5 (18th) |
| Goals | 67 | 41 |
| Disposals | 1,845 | 1,660 |
| Clearances | 186 | 162 |
| Turnovers | 315 | 357 |
Key matchups
The headline battle is the ball winners who can also hurt you. Harry Sheezel is playing like a bloke who already knows where the next contest will be. He’s sitting on 157 disposals from five games, an elite 31.4 a match, and it’s not empty possession either. He’s going at 4.6 inside 50s and 401 metres gained per game. If Richmond don’t pick him up at stoppage exits and handball chains, Docklands will make them pay because there’s less time to reset defensively.
Richmond’s answer is their most reliable engine-room worker: Tim Taranto. He’s doing the hard stuff in a struggling side, averaging 24.8 disposals, 6.4 clearances and 6.2 tackles. He’s also top-12 in the competition for clearances (32 total) and top-12 for tackles (31 total). That tells you the effort is there. The question is whether Richmond can get enough help around him so his wins turn into forward momentum, not just another stoppage.
Then you get to the matchup that decides the scoreboard: Nick Larkey against a Richmond backline that has been spending too much of the game under siege. Larkey has 15 goals at 3.0 a game and he’s equal 3rd in the AFL for total goals right now. More importantly for this week, he’s also averaging 7.0 score involvements, which screams “North are building their forward half around him”. If the Roos win territory, Larkey doesn’t need 10 kicks to break the game. He needs a few genuine looks.
Richmond will point to Tom Lynch as their structural forward, but the honesty clause applies: he’s only played two games so far for 2 goals. That’s not a trend, it’s a data point. He has averaged 6.0 score involvements across those games, which suggests he’s at least involved in the chain, but Richmond still need their smalls and mids to bring the ball in with speed and purpose. Slow, high entries to a contest at Docklands is basically a donation.
Head to head
This rivalry has a long history overall (Richmond lead the all-time series), but the recent slice is what matters for this preview, and it leans North’s way. Across the last 10 meetings, North have won six. They’ve also won the last three in a row, including two that would sting Richmond fans: a four-point win at the MCG in Round 10, 2025 and a 48-point win in Round 23, 2025 (135-87).
At Docklands specifically in this run, North have banked wins in 2024 and 2022, and that venue factor matters because it reduces the chaos that sometimes lets an underdog hang around. If North get their hands on the ball and start owning the centre corridor, history says they’re comfortable playing this matchup on their terms.
Prediction & betting
The market angle this week is awkward to quantify because the bookmaker odds feed isn’t available in our data tools right now. So I’m not going to pretend I’ve seen a price that I haven’t. What I can do is tell you how I’d play it if the lines land where they usually do for a 7th vs 18th matchup.
All the serious prediction models are leaning the same way: North Melbourne across the board. The aggregated model tip has North at about 72% confidence and a projected margin around 20 points. Individual models cluster tightly too, mostly calling North by 16 to 25, with one going as far as North by 27.7. That kind of agreement doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does tell you the “base case” for this matchup is North controlling the bulk of the game.
Here’s why I’m happy to back that. North are simply generating more scoring and more controllable phases: 67 goals to 41 across the first five rounds, with fewer turnovers. Richmond’s best path to an upset is to turn it into a scrap and live off pressure scores. But pressure football only holds up if you can stop the opposition from exiting cleanly, and North’s ball use this year has been good enough to avoid the worst of those momentum swings.
My call: North Melbourne to win by 22 points.
Best bet (line dependent): North Melbourne minus the line up to -15.5. If the line blows out past about four goals, I’d scale down rather than chase it, because young sides can switch off late and Docklands can create quick junk-time scores.
Player angle I like: Nick Larkey anytime goals. He’s 3.0 a game and North’s inside-50 volume is strong enough that even a “quiet” day tends to produce two to three looks. If you see 2+ goals at a fair price, I’m interested.
Note: Odds are not displayed because our odds comparison tool is currently awaiting a data feed configuration. If you’re betting, shop around across books for the best line and goal markets.
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FAQ
Who is favoured to win North Melbourne vs Richmond?
North Melbourne. They’re 7th (3-2) while Richmond are 18th (0-5), and every major model prediction we can see has North winning, with an aggregate projected margin around 20 points.
What’s the key stat that points to North Melbourne?
Scoring output and ball security together. North have kicked 67 goals across five games to Richmond’s 41, and they’ve turned it over 42 fewer times (315 vs 357). That’s a big deal in a fast indoor game.
Is Nick Larkey in good goal-kicking form?
Yes. Larkey has 15 goals in five games (3.0 per match) and sits equal third in the AFL for total goals this season so far.
Does head-to-head history matter here?
Recent history does. North have won six of the last 10 against Richmond and have taken the last three straight, including a 48-point win late last season. It’s not everything, but it supports the idea this matchup suits North’s shape.
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