Senegal vs Iraq World Cup Tips, Odds & Prediction

in Posts 26 Jun 2026

Senegal vs Iraq World Cup tips and prediction

Senegal vs Iraq is a World Cup betting preview where Senegal rate as the more reliable side on team quality, defensive structure and attacking upside.

Iraq still have a route into the match if they keep the tempo low and force Senegal to break down a compact block, but the stronger betting read is Senegal to control the key phases and create the cleaner chances.

Stats in this preview use the latest available World Cup data feed at the time of writing. Odds can move, so check the live market before placing a bet.

Senegal vs Iraq quick guide

Match: Senegal vs Iraq
Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026
Date/time: 2026-06-26 20:00:00 UTC
Venue: BMO Field
Projected shapes: Senegal 433 vs Iraq 4231
Best bet: Senegal to win
Goals angle: Under 3.5 goals
Prediction: Senegal 2-0 Iraq

Senegal vs Iraq odds snapshot

In the latest odds snapshot, Senegal are around 1.18-1.22, the draw is around 6.50-7.00, and Iraq are around 12.00-13.00.

For the goal markets, Over 2.5 Goals is around 1.44-1.50, Under 2.5 Goals is around 2.60-2.70, BTTS Yes is around 2.10-2.15, and BTTS No is around 1.65-1.73.

Senegal vs Iraq team stats

Metric	Senegal	Iraq
Matches played	2	2
Goals scored	3	1
Goals conceded	6	7
Clean sheets	0	0
Expected goals	3.49	3.75
Total shots	22	15
Shots on target	6	1
Big chances created	4	2
Average possession	52.45%	41.6%
Passes attempted	991	817
Accurate passes	860	685
Corners forced	8	4

Team insight

Senegal come into this match with 3 goals from 3.49 xG and 22 total shots in the latest tournament data. That gives us a clear read on whether their attacking production is built on repeatable pressure or a small number of finishing moments.

Iraq have produced 1 goals from 3.75 xG, with 1 shots on target and 41.6% average possession. That profile is central to the betting view because it tells us how much control they are likely to have before the match opens up.

The projected formation match-up also matters. Senegal are expected to line up in a 433, while Iraq are projected in a 4231. If the favourite controls the centre of the pitch, the match-winner angle strengthens; if the outsider can disrupt that rhythm, the goals and BTTS markets become more attractive.

Player insights with stats

Senegal players to watch

Ismaila Sarr: 2 goals, 2.57 xG, 9 shots, 1 key passes and 0 assists in the latest tournament data.
Ibrahim Mbaye: 1 goals, 0.17 xG, 2 shots, 2 key passes and 0 assists in the latest tournament data.
El Hadji: 0 goals, 0 xG, 0 shots, 1 key passes and 0 assists in the latest tournament data.

Iraq players to watch

Aymen Hussein: 1 goals, 1.34 xG, 3 shots, 1 key passes and 0 assists in the latest tournament data.
Mustafa Saadoon: 0 goals, 0 xG, 0 shots, 0 key passes and 0 assists in the latest tournament data.
Amir Fouad: 0 goals, 0 xG, 0 shots, 3 key passes and 1 assists in the latest tournament data.

Senegal vs Iraq betting tips

Best bet: Senegal to win

The best bet is Senegal to win. It matches the market shape and the team data better than chasing a speculative long shot. The most important supporting indicators are chance volume, expected goals, possession control and whether the favourite has enough defensive stability to protect a lead.

Goals market: Under 3.5 goals

The main goals-market angle is Under 3.5 goals. The case depends on how quickly the first goal arrives, but the numbers above show whether each team has been creating enough quality to push the game beyond a conservative scoreline.

Conversion angle

If you are betting this match, compare the price across Picklebet, Dabble and bet365 before kick-off. The difference between a short favourite and a slightly better top price can matter over a full tournament, and the same applies to BTTS and totals markets.

Senegal vs Iraq prediction

Prediction: Senegal 2-0 Iraq

The final call is based on the balance between the latest odds, team production and player-level output. Senegal to win is the main recommendation, with Under 3.5 goals the supporting market for punters who prefer a goals angle.