Caulfield Cup Tips & Preview 2023 | Third Time Lucky for $41 Chance

  • $41 chance looks over the odds
  • Was runner-up in this race in 2021
  • He was only 2.8 lengths away in 2022 after a three-wide trip without cover
Caulfield Cup Tips

While most of the betting focus for Saturday’s Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) is around Gold Trip ($5), West Wind Blows ($7) and Soulcombe ($7), a $41 chance looks well over the odds and can spring a surprise.

The three favourites come out of the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) where Gold Trip displayed an electrifying turn of foot to defeat West Wind Blows by 1.75 lengths while Soulcombe was a further half-length back in 3rd.

Gold Trip was so impressive it’s hard to leave him out. The Maher and Eustace camp have finally got this horse’s feet right, and that’s a scary thought considering what he did last spring while running with some niggling issues.

West Wind Blows was having his first run in Australia and was caught three deep for the majority of the race, and he now meets Gold Trip 3kg better at the weights.

Likewise, Soulcombe had excuses last time after missing the kick and being held up along the inside before finishing strongly – but will his bad barrier habit cost him again?

Last year’s Turnbull Stakes was run on a Good 3 in a time of 2:02.23 and this year it was run on a Good 4 in 2:01.62, so it’s fair to argue the 2023 renewal was a stronger event.

But on times alone, you can’t dismiss the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) form where Alligator Blood won in a time of 2:01.98.

Flemington generally produces quicker times than Caulfield over 2000m and the track record at Flemington rates more than nine lengths superior to Caulfield’s track record.

Back to the Caulfield Stakes where Alligator Blood defeated Vow And Declare (2nd), Duais (3rd) and NONCONFORMIST (4th).

The latter is the only one of that quartet targeting Saturday’s feature and he comes out on top in our Caulfield Cup tips – and he has a pretty handy record in the race.

The Grahame Begg-prepared Noncomformist was runner-up to Incentivise in the 2021 Caulfield Cup and then he finished 2.8 lengths behind Durston last year after being caught three deep without cover for the trip.

He also defeated Duais in The Q22 (2200m) at Eagle Farm carrying 2kg extra when coming from second last on the bend to grab 2nd place behind Without A Fight.

Noncomformist now drops 5.5kg on his last run and just has to overcome a tricky barrier (19) with Harry Coffey in the saddle.

With three runs under his belt, the son of Rebel Raider is looking for the 2400m trip now, and with 1kg less than last year, and a better run in transit, he looks ready to be right in the finish at huge odds.

2023 Caulfield Cup Tips