Caulfield Cup Winning Trends

The $5 million Caulfield Cup (2400m) is one of the biggest events on the Australian racing calendar and we take a look at the Caulfield Cup winning trends.

The gruelling handicap race for stayers has a rich history and famous winners include Tulloch, Tobin Bronze and Might And Power.

In recent years the event has attracted a number of overseas runners including Dunaden, who won in 2012, while the last two winners have come from overseas with Best Solution prevailing in 2018, while the Japanese horse, Mer De Grace, scored last year.

Finding a winner for the Caulfield Cup is always a challenge due to the handicap conditions of the race, combined with the large field and the influx of overseas contenders.

We have had a look at the Caulfield Cup winning trends since the year 2000 in order to take some of the guesswork out for you and here are a few things to consider. Since 2000, seven favourites have won the Caulfield Cup but only two since 2008. They were Mongolian Khan in 2015 and Jameka in 2016. 10 horses have win in single figure odds with the rest paying $11 or more.

Blowout winners include Boom Time, who won at $51 in 2017 and All The Good ($41 in 2008). The average winning price in the time period since 2000 is $13.10.

Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck share favouritism in early markets with sportsbet after the barrier draw this year at the $5.50 quote. Master Of Wine is the only other runner under double figure odds and has been posted at $9.

Finche is $11, while the Joseph O’Brien import, Buckhurst, is on the long term average of $13. Toffee Tongue ($16), Dashing Willoughby ($19) and Dalasan ($19) head the rest.

A feature of this year’s field is that there are five runners that had their most recent start overseas as well as two of the four the emergencies. They are Anthony Van Dyck, Buckhurst, Dashing Willoughby, Prince Of Arran and True Self. The emergencies are San Huberto and Le Don De Vie.

For fans of the internationals, five of the past 13 winners had their last runs overseas, including Best Solution, who won in Germany before scoring at Caulfield. He was trained by Saeed Bin Suroor for Godolphin.

Locally, the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) has been one of the proven lead ups to the Caulfield Cup with eight winners coming out of the Flemington Group 1 since 2000 including five of the past 11. Jameka was 2nd behind Hartnell in the 2016 Turnbull Stakes before her triumph. Humidor ran 3rd to the mighty Winx in 2016 and jumped as second favourite in this race before running 5th.

Verry Elleegant won the Turnbull this year, while Toffee Tongue and Finche filled the trifecta. Dalasan (4th), Master Of Wine (5th), Warning (6th), Vow And Declare (12th) and Aktau (15th) also come out of the Turnbull.

In 2017, Boom Time ran 4th in the Herbert Power and that race has provided just two winners of the Caulfield Cup since 2000. Chapada won that race this year.

The most successful age category since 2000 has been the four-year-olds with nine winners, including Jameka and Mongolian Khan, while Descarado scored for Gai Waterhouse in 2010. This year the runners aged four are Warning, Dalasan and Toffee Tongue. Of that group, Toffee Tongue is a mare and in the lead up to this race there is sometimes a bit of talk about mares aged four having a good record in the Caulfield Cup.

36 mares aged four have started in the Caulfield Cup since 2000 and three have won. They were Jameka in 2016, Southern Speed in 2011 and Ethereal in 2001. Youngstar missed out in 2018 as a $7.50 chance after some good lead up form that saw her narrowly miss out behind Winx in the Turnbull Stakes.

11 of the field of 22 (including emergencies) are aged five. The past two winners have been aged five. Verry Elleegant is one of those and will be out to defy history as there have been no other mares to have won the Caulfield Cup outside of Jameka, Southern Speed and Ethereal since 2000.

In what is good news for fans of horses that have drawn wide, gallopers have generally been able to come from a wide range of gates in the Caulfield Cup. 10 of the 20 winners since 2000 have come from double figure barriers including Mer De Grace (17) Best Solution (15), Dunaden (18) and Descerado (15). Jameka won from 11 in 2016.

Some of the notable gallopers to draw out this year include Anthony Van Dyck (21), Verry Elleegant (11) Finche (12) and Prince Of Arran (19). That quartet will come in a few slots after the removal of the emergencies.

The most successful barrier to jump from has been barrier 3, providing three winners since 2000. The Chosen One has drawn that spot this year. The average weight of the winning horses since 2000 has been 54kg. Going on the performances of runners since 2000, horses carrying either 52kg or 52.5kg have provided six winners, while three have been able to win with 58kg.

This year Anthony Van Dyck carries top weight of 58.5kg, while Dalasan and True Self are in that sweet spot of 52.5kg and 52 respectively. No horse carries 54kg but Dashing Willoughby, Finche and Prince Of Arran are near the average with 54.5kg, as are Master Of Wine and The Chosen One with 52kg.

Since 2000, only David Hayes and Saeed Bin Suroor have won the race on multiple occasions as trainers. Hayes was successful in 2006 with Tawqeet and joined his son Ben as well as Tom Dabernig in 2017 to win with Boom Time. That trio are without a runner this year, as is Bin Suroor. But Godolphin are represented by Avilius.

The most successful jockey’s in the event since 2000 have been Craig Williams and Nick Hall. Williams won aboard Southern Speed and Dunaden. Hall partnered Fawkner and Jameka. Williams steers Master Of Wine this year.

It should be noted that Damien Oliver has four wins in the event, which were all in the 90s. Ollie takes the ride on Vow And Declare.

Selections based on Caulfield Cup winning trends:

As always the Caulfield Cup is a wide open affair but the Turnbull Stakes gives us a great guide. On trends, Dalasan gets the most ticks and just gets the nod ahead of Warning.

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