TJ Smith Stakes Tips & Preview 2022
Doncaster Mile Tips & Preview 2022
Looking for Doncaster Mile tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Doncaster Mile at Randwick.
It is a typically wide-open betting market for the Doncaster Mile with Forbidden Love leading the way with ladbrokes after the barrier draw at the $5, just ahead of I’m Thunderstruck at $6 and the three-year-old, Converge, at $8.
Icebath is at $13, while Private Eye ($15), Lighthouse ($17) and Inspirational Girl ($17) are next in line. The first emergency in the race, Bankers Choice, is at $19, as is Ellsberg. Kissonallforcheeks, Just Folk and Mr Brightside head the rest at the $21.
WHO ARE THE LEADING CONTENDERS IN THE DONCASTER MILE?
Forbidden Love has been absolutely thriving on Heavy tracks of late and should get conditions to suit yet again at Randwick on Saturday with Sydney’s inclement weather continuing in the lead up to the $3 million Handicap.
The mare from the Richard and Michael Freedman camp has won three on the trot, taking out the Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) at her latest and drops 7kg from the run.
The daughter of All Too Hard went 8.2 lengths faster than standard benchmark that day. Earlier this prep she went 14.2 lengths faster than standard when claiming the first of her three recent wins, the Guy Walter Stakes (1400m).
I’m Thunderstruck comes up from Melbourne and should be cherry ripe at his fourth run this time in. He did all the chasing behind Zaaki in the All-Star Mile (1600m) at Flemington on March 19, finishing runner-up that day.
He boasts the best figures that any horse in this race has produced in the past two years by going 17 lengths faster than standard when winning the Toorak Handicap (1600m) at Caulfield. He then won the Sydney way of going when taking out the Golden Eagle (1500m) at Rosehill, while he also loves the wet.
Converge drops back to the 1600m after finishing a mile off Anamoe in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m). He defeated that horse over he Randwick mile in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) prior to that but I suspect he will need to produced a personal best to fire here.
Icebath could only manage 9th in the All Star Mile and was well beaten by Forbidden Love in the Guy Walter prior to that but was solid in the Epsom at this stage of his last preparation, while he is another that likes the wet and carries just 51.5kg.
Private Eye was luckless behind Forbidden Love in the George Ryder and has the form on the board over the 1600m here, having taken out the Epsom in the spring. Lighthouse keeps on keeping on and won the Coolmore Classic (1500m) at Rosehill at her latest, going 10 lengths faster than standard.
CAN A ROUGHIE TAKE OUT THE DONCASTER MILE?
Best last start benchmark figures belong to Kissonallforcheeks, who went 11.9 lengths faster than standard when winning the Group 3 Shaftesbury Avenue Stakes (1400m) at Flemington on March 12. The former Perth galloper was second up the day and was placed in the major races over in the west late last year at Ascot behind the likes of Regal Power and Western Empire. We can make a case for her.
Cascadian loves the mile and boasts the second best benchmark figures that any horse has produced. Barrier 18 is a concern and James McDonald will have to be at his absolute best aboard the Godolphin galloper. Cascadian won this race in wet conditions in 2020 with 53.5kgHungry Heart is capable of producing some nice figures but the wet track is a concern.
Conditions might bring the likes of Ellsberg, Inspirational Girl, Numerian, Just Folk and Kiku into the race. Inspirational Girl did defeat Zaaki two starts ago before doing a few things wrong in the All-Star Mile. Mr Brightside was held up before producing the fastest last 200m in that race. He likes the wet and carries just 50kg but draws the carpark.
Bankers Choice produced the best splits behind Inspirational Girl in the Blamey and again ran on well when 4th to Forbidden Loe in the George Ryder Stakes
DONCASTER MILE TIPS AND BEST BETS
I am going with a couple of Victorian gallopers in I’m Thunderstruck and Mr Brightside. I do think I’m Thunderstruck has a bit of upside to come and has been set for this race all along. He was a bit underdone in his first couple of runs this preparation, while he was held up for a period in the All-Star Mile. No shame in finishing runner-up behind Zaaki. He drops 3.5kg from that, while the wet and his performance at Rosehill last year are big ticks. You could make a case for a number of these but I really like the way Mr Brightside has been going and he can be saved for one last burst from the wide barrier.
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