Empire Rose Stakes Winning Trends

The Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) is the first of four Group 1 races on Derby Day and we take a look at the Empire Rose Stakes winning trends.

The $1 million race for the fillies and mares has been won in the past by the likes of Typhoon Tracy (2009) and Divine Madonna (2007). Melody Belle was successful in the race last year.

If we analyse the Empire Rose Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when it comes to finding the winner and it should be noted that the Empire Rose Stakes has been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers.

Melody Belle won as a $3.80 popular elect last year, While Shoals won at $4.80 in 2017. Roughies that have prevailed since 2000 include, Sacred Choice at $21 chance in very soggy conditions in 2010, while Hurtle Myrtle ($21), Appearance ($41), Bonaria ($26) and Politeness ($21) all paid big when they won.

The average winning price since 2000 has been $13 and seven of the 20 winners scored as favourites. This year, the favourite in early markets with NEDS is the Thousand Guineas (1600m) winner, Odeum at $3.60. Mystic Journey is at $4.50 and they are the only two in single figures. Madam Rouge is an $11 shot ahead of Challiot at $12, while Felicia and Pretty Brazen are at $14.

Empire Rose Stakes winners have come out of a variety of lead ups over the years. Three of the past 10 raced in the Tristarc Stakes, while five winners since 2000 were on the back up after racing at Moonee Valley the previous weekend.

This year, Madam Rouge saluted in the in the Tristarc Stakes ahead of She Shao Fly and Felicia. Nettoyer backs up after racing in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last weekend.

For fans of Odeum, two of the past four winners of this race were three-year-olds including Shoals, who was runner up in the Thousand Guineas before taking out the Empire Rose double in 2017. Chica Fuerte and Forbidden Love are the other three-year-olds this year.

An interesting statistic is that 12 of the 20 winners since 2000 have come from barrier 10 or wider, including eight of the past nine. Four of those have jumped from barrier 10, while four have jumped from 13, including Melody Belle last year. This year, Felicia, Shout The Bar, Madam Rouge, Chica Fuerte and Forbidden Love occupy barrier 10 through 14.

Four-year-olds and six-year-olds have been the most successful age group in this race since 2000, winning six editions each. Pretty Brazen, Wanna Girl, Shout The Bar, Asiago, Missile Mantra, Felicia, She Shao Fly and Challiot are the four-year-olds this year, while there are no six-year-olds.

Chris Waller was the winning trainer in 2018 and is the only person to saddle up two victors since 2000. He has Madam Rouge this year. Of the hoops, Dean Yendall, Michael Rodd, Glen Boss and Corey Brown have combined for nine wins since 2000. Boss rides Nettoyer this year, while Yendall is on Forbidden Love.

Selection according to the Empire Rose Stakes winning trends.
On trends, it is hard to split the trifecta horses out of the recent Tristarc Stakes. Madam Rouge gets the nod. Just.

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