Melbourne Cup Winning Trends

The Melbourne Cup (3200m) is regarded as the race that stops the nation and we take a look at the Melbourne Cup winning trends.

Australia’s most famous race is the Melbourne Cup is set to run and won on run on Tuesday November 3. The $7.75 million race shapes as another classic.

Run on the first Tuesday in November, the Cup has grown into an international event, attracting gallopers from all parts of the world but finding a winner can be tough as it brings together so many and varied formlines from both Australia’s best gallopers as well as the internationals.

In order to take out some of the guesswork for you when trying to pick a winner, we have had a look through the Melbourne Cup winning trends since the year 2000 and there are a few things you should consider. Since the year 2000, there have been only three favourites to have won the event. Fiorente was successful in 2013 as a $7 popular elect, whilst the mighty mare, Makybe Diva, looked after punters in both 2004 and 2005 when starting as favourite.

After the barrier draw this year, Anthony Van Dyck has been installed as a $7.50 favourite with Sportsbet ahead of Tiger Moth at $8. The recent Cox Plate (2040m) winner, Sir Dragonet, is at $8.50, while Surprise Baby ($9) and Prince Of Arran ($9.50) are also under the double figures.

Russian Camelot is a $12 chance, while the Caulfield Cup (2400m) winner, Verry Elleegant is at $13. Finche ($15) and Ashrun ($17) head the rest. For those that love a rough, a couple at cricket score odds are Dashing Willoughby at $126 and Etah James at $151.

The average price of the winners since 2000 is $17 but that figure is inflated somewhat after Prince Of Penzance scored at $101 in 2015. Take Michelle Payne’s winner out of the equation and the price since 2000 is $12.50. Last year, Vow And Declare won at $11, while Cross Counter was $9 when he saluted in 2018. In 2017, Rekindling won as a $15 chance, while in 2016 it was Almandin at $11.

The latter of those two horses are among six winners in the Melbourne Cup for owner Lloyd Williams. Master Or Reality, Twilight Payment and King Of Leogrance wear the navy blue and white colours this year.

There are nine international gallopers in this years field and of those, both Stratum Albion and Tiger Moth have not had a start in Australia. Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment had their most recent starts overseas but raced at the carnival last year.

Rekindling broke a bit of a hoodoo for international gallopers that had not had their most recent start in Australia before the Melbourne Cup. He was the first of the internationals that was successful in the race without having their prior run in Australia since Vintage Crop in 1993. Cross Counter was able to do that again in 2018.

The race brings a mix of younger four-year-olds up against some more seasoned types, such as Twilight Payment, Mustajeer, Stratum Albion, Prince Of Arran and Etah James, who are all eight.

But the most successful age group in the Cup since 2000 has been the six-year-olds with that group winning nine of the past 20 Melbourne Cups. The six-year-olds this year are Master Of Reality, Surprise Baby and King Of Leogrance.

There seems to be an emerging trend in the race that has seen the past three editions taken out by four-year-olds, including two from the northern hemisphere. Tiger Moth and Russian Camelot meet this criteria by being northern hemisphere bred, while Warning, Miami Bound and Persan will be out to emulate the feats of Vow And Declare by winning as a locally bred four-year-old.

Given that 18 of the past 20 Melbourne Cup winners had their prior start in Australia, it pays to look the key lead up races in Melbourne. One of those has always been Caulfield Cup (2400m).

That race has provided five of the past 20 winners of the Melbourne Cup, including Vow And Declare last year, who was runner-up at Caulfield before scoring at Flemington. The others were earlier in the 2000s and they were Makybe Diva in two of her three Cups, as well as Ethereal and Delta Blues.

Sir Dragonet and Russian Camelot come out of the Cox Plate, which has provided four winners of the Melbourne Cup since 2000 and they were Fiorente, Green Moon, Efficient and Delta Blues.

Other key lead ups include the Geelong Cup and the Hotham Handicap (2500m) . Three winners have come out of the Geelong Cup and two from the Hotham. Steel Prince won the Geelong Cup this year, while Ashrun scored in the Hotham on Derby Day.

Ashrun is one of eight last start winners in the race. The others are Master Of Reality, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Steel Prince, Tiger Moth, Miami Bound and Persan. Eight of the 20 Melbourne Cup winners since 2000 had won at their previous start.

Verry Elleegant, Etah James, Oceanex and Miami Bound are the mares in the race this year. Ethereal is one of two mares to have won the cup since 2000, with the other being the three-time winner, Makybe Diva.

The handicap conditions of the race have seen horses with a variety of weights win the Cup. The average weight of the winners has been 53.3kg. This year, King Of Leogrance, Russian Camelot, Steel Prince and The Chosen One carry 53.5kg, while Ashrun and Warning have 53kg.

Anthony Van Dyck carries top weight of 58.5kg and no horse has carried that much weight to victory this millennium. Makybe Diva scored with 58kg in 2005.

A lot of speculation in the lead up to the race will be how much of a factor a decent barrier will be. Whilst it is preferable to draw in, winners have come from a variety of positions.

11 of the 20 winners since 2000 have come from double digit barriers including Shocking and Brew, who drew barriers 21 and 22 respectively when they won the cup.

Vow And Declare jumped from 21 last year, while Cross Current drew 19 in 2018. While it will be tough for Tiger Moth, who has drawn barrier 23, fans of that horse can breathe a bit of a sigh of relief. Ashrun has drawn widest this year, while Prince Of Arran has drawn barrier 1.

The most successful jockeys in the Melbourne Cup since 2000 have been Glen Boss, Kerrin McEvoy and Damien Oliver. Boss was on Makybe Diva when she won three in a row while Damien Oliver famously rode Media Puzzle to victory in 2002 and was on Fiorente in 2013. McEvoy rode Brew, Almandin and Cross Counter. This year, Boss is on Sir Dragonet, while Bowman steers Anthony Van Dyck. McEvoy will be riding Tiger Moth.

In 2015, Michelle Payne made history by becoming the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup. Jamie Kah is the sole female jockey this year and will be riding Prince Of Arran.

No trainer has won the race twice since the year 2000 except for Lee Freedman and Robert Hickmott. Freedman trained Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005. (David Hall was her trainer in 2003).

Robert Hickmott trained Almandin in 2016 and Green Moon in 2012. Joseph O’Brien was the trainer for the Lloyd Williams galloper, Rekindling in 2017 and has Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment this year.

Danny O’Brien picked up the race last year with Vow And Declare, who will be out to become the first back-to-back winner since Makybe Diva. O’Brien also has King Of Leogrance, Russian Camelot and Miami Bound. Andreas Wohler was successful with Preotectionist in 2014 and has Ashrun this year.

Selection based on the Melbourne Cup winning trends.

Master Of Reality, Sir Dragonet, Russian Camelot and Tiger Moth are the ones that tick the most boxes on trends and are hard to split. Of that group, Master Of Reality just gets the nod.

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