Sires Produce Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning

How can history help us sort out our Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) tips at Randwick on Saturday?

The Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) at Randwick is the second leg of the Sydney Triple Crown for the two-year-olds and has been taken out by some outstanding gallopers in the past including Luskin Star (1977) and Tulloch (1957).

In more recent times Microphone (2019), Pierro (2012) and Dance Hero (2004) are some big names that have enjoyed success. It is usually one of the first occasions that the two-year-olds step up to the 1400m distance and therefore it represents a number of unknowns for punters, who are trying to pick the winner of the $1 million race.

We have analysed the trends of the race since the year 2000 in order to help you finalise your Sires Produce Stakes tips and found that it has generally been a very good race for punters, despite the lack of exposed form.

12 of the 20 winners since 2000 have started at odds of $5 or under and there have only been three winners to salute at double figure odds. They were Yosei in 2010, Excites in 2006 and the 2018 winner, El Dorado Dreaming, who started at a whopping $81. The average price of the winners since 2000 has been $10. Take El Dorado Dreaming out of the equation and that number drops to $6.30.

Horses to have won as favourite include Yankee Rose in 2016 as well as Sebring, Dance Hero and Viscount, while the likes of Pierro and Helmet started as second favourite. Last year, Microphone started as a $4.60 chance, just behind Loving Gaby at $4.40.

This year, the Golden Slipper 3rd placegetter, Mamaragan, has been installed as a $4.40 chance ahead of Prague and Aim, who are both at $6. Ole Kirk heads the rest at $8.

An interesting feature of this year’s field is that it has attracted 15 runners, which is above the long-term average of 10 runners. The Golden Slipper (1200m) has provided 13 of the past 20 winners and four of those have completed the double. Of the remaining nine winners to have come out of the Golden Slipper, five were placed in the world’s richest two-year-old race.

Asides from Mamaragan others to come out of the Slipper this year are Prague (6th) and King’s Legacy (9th). El Dorado Dreaming rose from a Newcastle Maiden to surprise in 2018. In 2017, Invader, had his previous start in the Todman Stakes, while the 2015 Sires winner, Pride Of Dubai had his previous start in the Blue Diamond, (1200m).

Of some of the other chances this year, Ole Kirk was an unlucky 3rd in the VRC Sires Produce (1400m), while Holyfield claimed the Ballieu (1400m) at Rosehill last weekend. Interestingly, Dismissal is the only filly in the race this year and the girls have a good record in the Sires, accounting for nine of the past 20 winners, including four of the past seven. The big stables have generally targeted the Sires and the Waterhouse’s, Snowden’s and Hawkes’, have combined to take it out on 13 occasions since 2000, with Waterhouse leading the charge with an amazing seven winners. James Cummings claimed the race in 2019.

This year the Snowden’s have King’s Legacy, Aim and Bartley. Team Hawkes have Ole Kirk in the race. Holyfield hails from the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stable. Those two are primarily based in Victoria but Holyfield is listed as being trained at the duo’s Warwick Farm stables.

An interesting stat is that horses from south of the border have a poor record in this race. Only one winner in the past 20 years had its last start in Victoria. Larimer Street, Glenfiddich, Ole Kirk and Pioneer River are those that will need to defy that trends.

Sires Produce Stakes tips according to trends:

Mamaragan looks to be a very strong contender based on the trends of the Sires Produce.