MT Gambier Racing Tips 13 March — can Madden boss this track again?
Kembla Grange Racing Tips 13 March — can Berry win again?
Kembla Grange Racing Tips 13 March — can Berry win again?
Tommy Berry turns up to Kembla Grange and the whole meeting shifts a half-step. Nine rides here in the recent sample and he’s won six of them — that’s not “good stats”, that’s a jockey arriving with intent and confidence on the circuit. The catch today is we’re dealing with a small card and a lot of lightly-raced horses, so you’ve got to balance the tempting track numbers with the reality: plenty of these have only had one or two goes at the ‘Gong.
Still, there are clear angles. We’ve got four races on turf, a stack of maidens where late splits and barriers matter more than reputation, and a Midway BM64 that actually gives you something to bet into. These Kembla Grange racing tips are written the way you’d want them from a mate who’s gone through the form properly — who I’d back, who can beat me, and where I’d keep the wallet shut.
Kembla Grange — the setup
Limited course form across today’s fields — most runners have one or two starts here. Treat those as pointers, not prophecies. The exceptions are the riders and some stables: Berry’s Kembla sample is big enough to respect, and a few trainers on this card have genuine volume here.
We don’t have live odds available for these races in the feed today, so this is a form-and-shape meeting rather than a “price shopping” one.
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Jockeys worth following at Kembla (meaningful sample: 5+ rides)
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Berry | 9 | 6 | 7 | 66.67% | 77.78% |
| Tom Sherry | 10 | 4 | 5 | 40.00% | 50.00% |
| K S Latham | 18 | 4 | 7 | 22.22% | 38.89% |
| Brock Ryan | 22 | 3 | 7 | 13.64% | 31.82% |
| A J Calder | 10 | 1 | 4 | 10.00% | 40.00% |
| A Adkins | 12 | 1 | 8 | 8.33% | 66.67% |
| Pierre Boudvillain | 20 | 1 | 7 | 5.00% | 35.00% |
Trainer snapshot at Kembla (meaningful sample: 5+ runners)
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C J Waller | 11 | 3 | 7 | 27.27% | 63.64% |
| K J Parker | 15 | 3 | 8 | 20.00% | 53.33% |
| Brad Widdup | 14 | 2 | 7 | 14.29% | 50.00% |
| MS T Bateup | 14 | 2 | 3 | 14.29% | 21.43% |
| Mitchell Beer & George Carpenter | 21 | 2 | 7 | 9.52% | 33.33% |
| R & L Price | 22 | 3 | 8 | 13.64% | 36.36% |
Race-by-race — Kembla Grange predictions
Race 1: Henry Clive Bar Mdn Plate — 13:35, 1312m
Space Cadet looks the obvious “that’ll do” horse in a maiden like this: second on debut (form “2”), drawn to get the cosy run from gate 2, and you know Brock Ryan will have it in the right spot turning for home. In a race full of patchy form strings, I’ll take the runner who’s already proven it can find the line under race pressure.
The one I’m most wary of is Bedda Mia. She’s been around the mark for a while (3-2722) and, importantly, she’s placed in both of her Kembla visits — again, only two runs so it’s not “track specialist” chat, but she clearly handles the place. She also drops to 54kg (119.0) which matters when a few of these older maidens are lugging 59kg (130.0).
I’ll also mention My Proclama because Joseph Pride runners don’t usually hang around in maidens forever, and she’s been ultra-consistent on paper (3232-3). She’s had one go at Kembla and placed; barrier 4 sets up nicely to stalk and pounce if they overdo it early.
Play: Space Cadet win. Small saver quinella with Bedda Mia if you like insurance.
Race 2: Itc Legend Wayne Harris Mdn Hcp — 14:10, 1640m
Here’s the puzzle: do you want the “ready to win” type, or the upside runner who might just be better than a maiden handicap? I’m leaning to the former — Pour Benn — because the profile screams ‘stays, tries, and is right in the zone’. His form line (5-3023) says he’s around the finish, he gets a soft-ish weight (56kg / 122.3), and the mile at Kembla is exactly where you can roll into the race without needing to be a turn-of-foot freak.
The 90-day snapshot supports that he’s holding his form: three runs in that window with two placings. That’s not sexy, but it’s reliable. And reliable wins maidens.
The danger is Nothing Finer from the Pride yard. Two thirds last prep (75-33) and he draws wide (12), which forces a decision early. If Adkins can slide in without spending petrol, he’s the main threat — and Adkins at Kembla hits the frame two-thirds of the time from a 12-ride sample, which is strong enough to matter.
I’m forgiving Unbridled Storm on raw ability because it’s Waller/Berry, but that 11 gate plus a form line that ends “597-” makes him a “watch what they do with him” horse rather than a confident bet today.
Play: Pour Benn each-way. If you’re playing exotics, box with Nothing Finer.
Race 3: Cactus Imaging Provincial Mdn Plate — 14:45, 1531m
This is the race I want to bet into because there’s a clean map and a runner whose recent work screams “win pending”. Ol’ Mate Coop draws gate 1, which at 1531m around Kembla is gold if your jockey commits to holding a forward spot and making others come around you. His form (72-263) reads like a horse who keeps turning up and doing his job, and he won’t need luck from there — he’ll create his own.
The main danger is Zougotme with Berry aboard. Yes, the draw is ugly (12), and yes, that matters. But Berry at this track is a proper weapon (six wins from nine rides), and the horse’s last four reads 56-362 — trending the right way. If Berry pushes the button at the 600m and gets cover into it, he can absolutely run them down.
She Can Salsa is the wild card. She’s only had one run and placed (form “3”), which is a data point, not a trend — but it’s often the right sign at provincial level. The gear change is the rider: she goes from an unspecified booking to J Ford here, and Ford’s Kembla record is solid for placing (6 placings from 12 rides). That’s the sort of swap that can turn “promising” into “wins”.
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Play: Ol’ Mate Coop win. Saver win on Zougotme if he drifts to a backable price given the gate.
Race 4: Jjj Racing Midway (Bm64) — 15:20, 1750m
The market won’t always gift you these, but the card does: Sneaky Choice looks the best bet of the meeting. He arrives in form (65-431), he gets Berry, and the recent 90-day record says he’s flying: three runs for a win and two placings. That’s a horse turning up fit and confident, not a one-off spike.
Then you add the Kembla angle and it tightens again: he’s had two runs here for a win and another placing. Two runs is still “sample size: small”, but it’s enough to say he handles the track, and that’s all I need when the rest of his profile is already strong.
The danger is Tip Top Timing, who’s an eight-year-old on a tear (260-11) and has won on his only start at Kembla. He’ll make his own luck if Panya can land him in rhythm, and Panya’s record here is better than most think — five rides for three placings and a win.
If you’re looking for a blowout runner to sneak into multiples, La Morra has the right sort of profile (487-12), draws gate 3 and gets Bayliss. Bayliss doesn’t win much here from a four-ride sample, but he does keep finding the placings (three from four), and from the inside La Morra can get the kind run behind speed.
Play: Sneaky Choice win. Exacta saver with Tip Top Timing second (or straight quinella if you prefer simpler).
The plays
I’m happy to keep this meeting simple. The strongest push is Sneaky Choice (Race 4, 15:20). The horse comes here off a last-start win, Berry climbs on, and the 90-day record says he’s not just consistent — he’s converting. That’s the profile I want at BM64 level.
The value angle (without live Kembla Grange odds today, it’s more “value by profile”) is Pour Benn each-way in Race 2. He keeps turning up in the finish, and that’s the type that often gets underbet in maidens when punters chase stable names from bad gates.
The “banker” for multis is still Sneaky Choice. If you want a safer leg earlier, Space Cadet in Race 1 maps to get every favour from barrier 2 and looks the most likely to run top two in the opener.
Course angle to keep in your pocket: Berry’s Kembla strike rate is the real deal from a nine-ride sample — and when he’s drawn wide (like Zougotme in Race 3), he tends to ride with purpose rather than hope.
Watch how often leaders kick off the home turn in these mid-distance races today — if the inside lanes are holding, the next Kembla meeting becomes a barrier-and-initiative puzzle, not a late-swooper lottery.
FAQ — Kembla Grange racing tips
What time does racing start at Kembla Grange today?
Racing starts at 13:35 with Race 1, the Henry Clive Bar Mdn Plate over 1312m.
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Kembla Grange?
On today’s card, Tommy Berry is the standout rider at this track from a meaningful sample: 6 wins and 7 placings from 9 rides at Kembla in the recent data. Among trainers with real volume, C J Waller has 3 wins and 7 placings from 11 runners at Kembla, while K J Parker has 3 wins and 8 placings from 15.
What are the best bets at Kembla Grange today?
My best bet is Sneaky Choice in Race 4 (15:20, 1750m). He’s in form (65-431), he gets Berry, and his last 90 days reads three runs for a win and two placings.
Do any horses have strong course form at Kembla Grange today?
Most runners have only one or two course runs, so keep it sensible. Sneaky Choice has had two goes here for a win and a placing. Tip Top Timing has won on his only start at Kembla. Bedda Mia has placed in both course visits.
Where can I find the best odds for Kembla Grange races?
Best approach is to compare prices across the major Australian-facing books and the tote close to jump. We don’t have live odds in the feed for this meeting, so check your bookmaker app and the NSW tote for late moves before you bet.
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