Townsville Racing Tips 31 March — can Burlington Arcade stay unbeaten here?
Newcastle Racing Tips 31 March — can Lees land a double?
Newcastle, and the one stable you can’t ignore
Kris Lees doesn’t need to “target” Newcastle. He’s already living there on the results sheet. Sixteen runners at this track for five wins and eight placings is the sort of strike that changes how you price a whole meeting, not just a race or two. And today he’s got a proper hand: a lightly raced winner stepping into a C1, and a 3yo who might still be ahead of his mark in the provincial mile-plus.
That’s the spine of today’s Newcastle racing tips, but it’s not the whole story. The card is six races on turf, and there’s a nice mix: two maidens where upside matters more than exposed ratings, and a staying Benchmark where barrier and intent will decide whether the “right horse” even gets the right run. I’ll take a firm view when the setup gives me one, and call a watch race when it doesn’t.
Newcastle — the setup
We’re on the turf at Newcastle, with sprints at 984m, two 1367m races, and a pair of 2023m events to close the book. With no going listed in the data, treat the early races as your guide to where the day’s pattern sits: if leaders can pinch a break at 984m, it often flows through to the middle-distance races.
Course form is thin in most races. A lot of these are one-start Newcastle horses, so keep perspective: “won on its only start here” is a handy note, not a licence to crown a track specialist.
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Still, a few track angles do have enough substance to matter today.
Jockeys at Newcastle (minimum 5 rides in the provided course sample)
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Schiller | 11 | 5 | 8 | 45.45 | 72.73 |
| K S Latham | 26 | 4 | 12 | 15.38 | 46.15 |
| C Reith | 23 | 3 | 7 | 13.04 | 30.43 |
| J R Collett | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 60.00 |
Trainers at Newcastle (minimum 5 runners in the provided course sample)
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K A Lees | 16 | 5 | 8 | 31.25 | 50.00 |
| Peter Snowden | 11 | 3 | 6 | 27.27 | 54.55 |
| John O’Shea & Tom Charlton | 8 | 2 | 5 | 25.00 | 62.50 |
| G Waterhouse & A Bott | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16.67 | 33.33 |
| Matthew Smith | 15 | 1 | 7 | 6.67 | 46.67 |
Race-by-race
Race 1: Davali Thoroughbreds Mdn Plate — 13:15, 2023m
Cavalry gets my money early. He’s the one in this maiden who looks like he’s been living at the right trip range, not merely surviving it. That “353-2” profile reads like a horse that’s found his lane, and from gate 4 Tyler Schiller should be able to keep him out of traffic and make the staying test count.
Schiller is a serious Newcastle rider in this sample: 11 rides for five wins and eight placings. When you can trust the jockey to make good decisions at the point the race gets messy, the 2023m maiden becomes a lot less random.
The danger is Scoop The Pool. He’s been around the mark and he’s drawn to land in the first half without burning fuel (gate 6). If this turns into a sit sprint and the leaders get a cheap 600m, he’s the type that can pinch it while the better stayer is still trying to build.
Play: Win bet Cavalry. Small saver quinella with Scoop The Pool if you want cover in a maiden staying race.
Race 2: New Zealand Bloodstock Mdn Hcp — 13:50, 984m
Here’s the puzzle: do you want the proven trier with a map edge, or the unknown 2yo with upside? I’m leaning to the trier because 984m races at Newcastle can punish hesitation.
Go Russian is the bet for me. He comes in with “286-24”, and that last-start placing suggests he’s holding his speed deep into the race rather than folding when the pressure arrives. Gate 3 is exactly what you want in a big-ish maiden handicap: options. C Reith can bounce, hold a spot, or stalk and peel, depending on what the wide gates do.
Love You Anyway is the clear danger. “336-22” screams consistency and she gets in light at 115.7. She also has placed on her only Newcastle start, so she’s already answered the “does she handle the place” question. The knock is tactical: if she lands a touch too far back and they run along, she’ll need luck.
Play: Go Russian win. If you’re playing each-way, Love You Anyway is the safer place ticket with the weight pull.
Race 3: Horsepower Feeds & Supplements Hcp (C1) — 14:25, 984m
The market will focus on class moves, but I’m starting with the horse that’s already proven it can win here.
Twoexcel ticks the most boxes for a C1 sprint: he’s a last-start winner (“53-1”), he carries a workable 121.2, and he’s drawn to get cover (gate 6) rather than being forced into a dumb speed battle. He also won on his only Newcastle run, which is worth noting even if it’s only a single data point.
The one that can beat him is Confidentiality. The “31-” suggests he’s got ability, and Joseph Pride placing a progressive type into this grade often means he expects a quick return. Gate 7 keeps him in the same part of the track as Twoexcel, so we should get a clean read on who’s actually got the better sprint.
Play: Win bet Twoexcel. If you’re building a multi, he’s the banker leg on the card.
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18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C’s Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Race 4: Highlander Central Coast 18-19 Apr Provincial Hcp (C1) — 15:05, 1367m
The shape matters here. There’s enough on-pace intent drawn inside to keep this honest, and that’s usually when the horse that can sustain a run from the 600m wins, not the one that just sprints for 150m.
Erin Jo is my play. “37-1” says she’s already taken the next step, and she’s drawn gate 2 to either lead or sit right on the hammer without being scrubbed. Kris Lees is the Newcastle trainer you can build around, and he’s not shy about backing a progressive 3yo into the right races.
Azure Angel is the danger with upside. She’s a last-start winner (“1-”) and Tyler Schiller takes the ride. The question is whether she can absorb the jump from a first-up win into a deeper C1 without getting caught three-wide from gate 7. If she gets cover, she’s live. If she doesn’t, she’s paying the Newcastle tax.
Play: Erin Jo win. Save on Azure Angel if she’s not doing work early in the parade and looks like she’ll settle.
Race 5: The Adviser Collective Midway Mdn Hcp — 15:40, 1367m
The market problem in these Midway maidens is always the same: people fall in love with the “one run, one placing” horse and ignore the map. I don’t want to overcomplicate it, though. One runner simply looks like he’s turned up with intent.
Bang On Time (form “2”) appeals as the horse with the cleanest profile: he’s already shown he can measure up, and J Ford sticks. Barrier 15 is ugly on paper, but over 1367m you’ve at least got time to find a lane and get in. If Ford can slide across and sit midfield with cover, that last-start second often becomes a win in a maiden handicap.
The danger is Let’s Be Honest from gate 1. He’s got the inside draw to land closer than Bang On Time without spending, and his form line (“7534-”) says he’s not hopeless. If the fence is the place to be, the wide gate horse can do everything right and still run second.
Play: Watch race if the market crushes Bang On Time from the draw. If he holds a fair price, small win bet. Otherwise, play the exacta: Let’s Be Honest first or second with Bang On Time.
Race 6: A-Plus Contracting & Poly Welding (Bm64) — 16:15, 2023m
Stable move first, because it’s the clearest signal on the page. Tyler Schiller riding for the Hawkes team at Newcastle is not a casual booking: five rides together at this track for two wins and four placings. That’s not a one-off pop. That’s a pattern, and they roll into the last with a horse who looks well placed.
Mister Martini is my best bet of the meeting. He’s a 3yo on the up (“0-31”), he’s won on his only Newcastle start, and he’s the one runner in this staying BM64 who still has genuine improvement left. He’s drawn gate 9, which is fine over 2023m if Schiller can slot in one off the fence and keep him breathing. The Hawkes stable also has a strong Newcastle record in this sample, which fits the overall picture.
The danger is Commanding Artist. He’s been knocking on the door (“4-2522”), and a horse that keeps running second tends to get a turn when the favourite has to do even a little bit wrong in the run. Gate 11 means J Ford will need a plan early, but if he finds cover and the pace is solid, he’s the grinder that can make Mister Martini earn it.
Play: Win bet Mister Martini. If you’re staking exotics, box Mister Martini and Commanding Artist in the quinella rather than getting cute with the rest.
The plays
NAP: Mister Martini (Race 6, 16:15). The 3yo profile is what you want in a 2023m BM64, and the Schiller–Hawkes Newcastle combo brings real confidence without needing to invent a narrative.
Value: Go Russian (Race 2, 13:50). He’s the hardened runner with the right draw in a 984m maiden handicap, and those are the types that keep you out of trouble when debutants get the staggers.
Banker for multis: Twoexcel (Race 3, 14:25). Won last start, won on his only Newcastle run, and maps to get the run of the race.
Each-way: Love You Anyway (Race 2, 13:50). She carries 115.7 and comes in off two consecutive seconds. If you’re playing safer, she’s the one to lean on for a collect.
Course angle to keep: Keep following Tyler Schiller at Newcastle. In this sample he wins close to half his rides and hits the frame nearly three-quarters of the time, and today he’s on the right horses, not just filling mounts.
If Lees keeps turning up with these progressive types, the Newcastle meeting after this won’t be about finding a winner, it’ll be about finding who can beat him.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Newcastle today?
Newcastle kicks off at 13:15 with the Davali Thoroughbreds Maiden Plate over 2023m (Race 1).
Who are the top trainers and jockeys at Newcastle on this card?
Kris Lees is the headline stable on volume and results: 16 runners at Newcastle for five wins and eight placings in the provided course sample. Among the jockeys, Tyler Schiller stands out with 11 rides for five wins and eight placings here, and he partners the Hawkes stable twice on the card (Cavalry in Race 1, Mister Martini in Race 6).
What are the Newcastle best bets today?
My Newcastle best bets are Mister Martini (Race 6, 16:15) as the main play, with Twoexcel (Race 3, 14:25) as the safer multi anchor after winning last start and having already won on his only Newcastle run.
Where can I find the best odds for Newcastle races?
Prices weren’t available via the odds feed at the time of writing for this meeting, so shop around with your preferred bookmakers closer to jump time. For official fields and updates, start with your local NSW racing channels and bookies’ fixed-odds markets when they publish.
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