Coolmore Stud Stakes Winning Trends

The Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) is one of the premier three-year-old races of the spring and we take a look at the Coolmore Stud Stakes winning trends.

The $1.5 million race has gained a reputation as a key clash for future stud prospects, with Brazen Beau (2014), Zoustar (2013) and Northern Meteor (2007) among the recent winners.

The race, which is registered as the Ascot Vale Stakes, was traditionally run in early September before a shift to the current date in 2006. Last year, Exceedance claimed the race, while Sunlight was a slashing winner of the six furlong scamper in 2018.

Other big name winners include Sepoy (2011), Weekend Hussler (2007) and Alinghi (2004). When trying to back a winner for the Coolmore Stud Stakes there are a few things you should consider and we have looked at the Coolmore Stud Stakes winning trends since the year 2000 to help you out.

In recent times, the sprint hasn’t been the best for favourite backers and the most recent popular elect to score was Zoustar at $2 in 2013. Japonisme (2015), Flying Artie (2016) and Merchant Navy (2017) all paid double figure odds. Last year, Exceedance won as a $3.80 second favourite, rolling Bivouac at $3.30.

However, the long term trends are better for favourite backers with 10 of 20 winning, including four at ‘odds-on’. Sepoy won at $1.30 in 2011, while Weekend Hussler took out the race as a $1.65 chance in 2007. This year brings together some classy gallopers and it is September Run that has been installed as a $4.20 favourite with ladbrokes ahead of Farnan and Wild Ruler at $6.

The average price of the winners since 2000 has been $8.10 and it is Swats That that is at $8 this year, while Anders at $9 is the only other runner below double figure odds. Ranting and Glenfiddich head the rest at $15.

When looking at the results of the Coolmore Stud Stakes it is interesting to note that 15 of the 20 winners drew in the outer half of the field, that is, on the grandstand side. Last year, Exceedance drew 10 of 13, while Sunlight drew seven of 10 in 2018.

This year, Ranting, Swats That, Farnan, Our Playboy, September Run, Holyfield and Wild Ruler occupy that are drawn from barrier eight to 15. The most successful trainers in the race since 2000 have been Chris Waller and Danny O’Brien. Waller has saddled up three of the past seven winners, while O’Brien was successful in 2010 with Star Witness and in 2005 with Ferocity. Waller takes September Run into the race this year, while O’Brien is without a runner.

Of the jockeys, Damien Oliver, Kerrin McEvoy, Nash Rawiler and Steven Arnold have both won the race twice since the year 2000. Of that quartet,Oliver rides Flying Award, while McEvoy is on Extra Time.

Waller’s three previous winners came out of the Roman Consul Stakes (1200m) at Randwick, while six of the past eight winners had their last start in Sydney, including Exceedance and Merchant Navy, who both missed out in the Golden Rose prior to their Coolmore Stud Stakes wins.

Contenders to have come out of the Roman Consul this year include Wild Ruler, who picked up that race, while Doubtland ran 3rd. Farnan is the only other runner that had its last start in Sydney and was 5th in the Run To The Rose.

Finally, for fans of September Run, the fillies have a reasonable record in this race if you take into account that they have been under-represented in comparison to the colts and geldings. Seven members of the fairer sex have won this race since 2000, including Sunlight in 2018.

Selection based on the Coolmore Stud Stakes winning trends:

We can make a case for September Run but the trends point to the Sydney form and it is Wild Ruler that can prevail.

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