Morphettville Racing Tips 18 July — can Stokes land a double?
Doomben Racing Tips 18 July — can Moshulu Spirit stay unbeaten?
Doomben Racing Tips 18 July — can Moshulu Spirit stay unbeaten?
There’s one horse on this Doomben card that screams momentum rather than mystery: Moshulu Spirit. Four straight wins on the page and a set-up today that lets him land where he wants, when he wants. That’s the anchor for my Doomben read, but the meeting has a nice second layer too, a couple of fast developing juveniles early and a 3YO handicap that looks straightforward until you actually map it and realise half the field wants the same patch of turf at the 600m.
We’ve got three races on the program, all on turf, and the distances live in that Doomben wheelhouse where barriers and intent matter: 1312m, 1476m, then 1312m again. These Doomben racing tips are written to get you to the bet quickly: who I’m with, who can beat them, and how I’m staking it.
Doomben — the setup
The course data is a bit thin for most of today’s runners. Plenty are sitting on one or two Doomben appearances, so I’m treating those as notes, not trends. Where the numbers do carry weight today is in the jockey and trainer profiles: there are riders with big Doomben volume, and a couple of stables that consistently bring horses that handle this circuit.
Limited course form across today’s fields — most runners have one or two starts here. I’m leaning more heavily on current form, barriers and race shape.
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| Jockey | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Thompson | 111 | 16 | 47 | 14.41 | 42.34 |
| M Rodd | 43 | 9 | 17 | 20.93 | 39.53 |
| Jag Guthmann-Chester | 41 | 7 | 17 | 17.07 | 41.46 |
| Jace Mcmurray | 53 | 6 | 22 | 11.32 | 41.51 |
| Jake Bayliss | 45 | 3 | 17 | 6.67 | 37.78 |
| Jasper Franklin | 34 | 4 | 11 | 11.76 | 32.35 |
| Trainer | Runs | Wins | Places | Win% | Place% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T J Gollan | 172 | 27 | 80 | 15.70 | 46.51 |
| Jack Bruce | 35 | 5 | 12 | 14.29 | 34.29 |
| P P Jenkins | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14.29 | 28.57 |
| Corey & Kylie Geran | 16 | 2 | 6 | 12.50 | 37.50 |
| K M Schweida | 55 | 6 | 18 | 10.91 | 32.73 |
| M J Dunn | 44 | 5 | 17 | 11.36 | 38.64 |
Race-by-race: Doomben predictions
Race 1: The Gibson Hcp — 11:58, 1312m
Tengun Tommy looks the right horse to build the day around early, even from a sticky gate. The form line is simple and strong: 611, and in the last 90 days he’s gone two runs for two wins with $69,800 in prize money. That’s the profile of a colt who knows how to win, not just how to run on for a cheque.
The query is the map. From barrier 12 he doesn’t get to fall into the race, so Ben Thompson will have to make a decision early: press on and find a spot before the bend, or snag back and trust the horse to circle them at Doomben. I’d rather be on the one that can absorb a bit of early work than the one that needs everything to go right, and Tommy has already shown he can cop pressure and still finish it off.
The danger I keep coming back to is Syrian Diamond (gate 2). That’s the opposite map: soft run, saves ground, and gets his chance to punch through late. The 631 form says he’s not bombproof, but the barrier gives him a real swing at them.
Staking: Win bet Tengun Tommy. Small saver quinella with Syrian Diamond if you want protection against the map.
Race 2: Country Music Raceday On Sale Now (Bm70) — 12:33, 1476m
This is the race where I’m happy to be firm. Moshulu Spirit looks like a proper handicap horse in a grade that still hasn’t caught him. He comes in with 7111 on the card and the recent window is even cleaner: three runs in the last 90 days, three wins and $58,800 banked. You don’t need to romanticise it. He’s just winning, repeatedly.
Barrier 7 is fine for a horse that can hold a position, and the key is that several of these want to be ridden with cover rather than forcing the issue. If they undercook the first half, he gets the chance to control the race from the pointy end and kick. If they overdo it, he still has the strength to absorb a mid race squeeze and keep finding.
Moonan Quartz is the obvious threat. He’s been going well (143-11), and while his Doomben stats are only two runs, the bigger note is that he’s arriving in form and his profile reads like a horse that can sit close enough to strike if Moshulu Spirit hesitates at any stage.
One runner I’m wary of being trapped into is Contilda’s Love. He draws 1, which looks like a gift, but his recent form reads 0-11406 and the Doomben note is a plain one, he finished well back on his only start here. If the market leans too hard on the inside draw, I’m happy to oppose.
Staking: Win bet Moshulu Spirit. Banker for multis.
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Race 3: Ladbrokes Big Bets Copy Now Hcp — 13:08, 1312m
The puzzle here is whether the race becomes a sit sprint or whether someone actually rolls the pressure on from the 800m. I want the horse that’s both fit and tactical, and that brings me to Point Vega. The run of 11140 says he’s got a ceiling, but it also tells you he’s got a winning motor when the race is run to suit. From gate 4, M Rodd can ride to the shape rather than forcing it.
Rodd’s Doomben record is one you can lean on without squinting: 43 rides here for 9 wins, and he’s in the money often enough to matter. That matters in these 3YO handicaps where the difference between three wide with cover and three wide without cover is the difference between winning and running fifth.
The danger is Moshulu Spirit’s stablemate on the program, Too Hot To Torque, who comes through a solid enough set of figures (1-2110) and maps to get his chance from gate 10 if he can slot in without burning. If he crosses cheaply, he’s right in it.
I’m against Toro Chase as a win play despite the inside draw and the light weight (113.5). He’s got four prior Doomben runs without hitting the frame, and the current form (2-55194) reads more like a place chance on the right day than a horse you want to take short.
Staking: Each-way Point Vega. If the market pushes him out, I’d rather bet more than get clever with exotics.
Where the money goes
I’m keeping this Doomben card simple because the best angles are pretty clear, and when they’re clear, you don’t need to invent complexity.
NAP: Moshulu Spirit (Race 3, 13:08). Four straight wins coming in and he’s gone three from three in the last 90 days. If he runs to that level again, they’re chasing.
Value: Point Vega each-way (Race 3, 13:08). The map is kind and M Rodd is a real Doomben rider with 9 wins from 43 rides here. If this turns tactical, that combo can steal it.
Banker for multis: Moshulu Spirit. I’m not overthinking the class rise, the horse is in the habit of putting fields away.
Each-way play: Point Vega again. If you only have one each-way bet on the meeting, make it the horse that can get the run and strike at the right time.
Course angle: If you’re leaning on a rider today, lean on Ben Thompson and M Rodd. Thompson’s volume at Doomben is serious (111 rides), and Rodd’s strike rate here stays strong over 43 rides.
Next time you see a Doomben 1300m handicap with a messy map, watch who Rodd chooses to sit behind early. He wins a lot of these races before they hit the corner.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Doomben today?
Racing starts at 11:58 with Race 1, The Gibson Hcp over 1312m.
Who are the top jockeys at Doomben on today’s numbers?
On meaningful Doomben volume, Ben Thompson has 111 rides here for 16 wins and 47 placings, while M Rodd has 43 rides for 9 wins. Jag Guthmann-Chester and Jace Mcmurray also hold up well with 41 and 53 rides respectively.
Who are the top trainers at Doomben to respect?
T J Gollan sets the standard on depth: 172 runners at Doomben for 27 wins and 80 placings. Jack Bruce has a solid record here too (35 runners for 5 wins), and K M Schweida has the volume to trust (55 runners for 6 wins).
What are the best bets at Doomben today?
My best bet is Moshulu Spirit in Race 3 (13:08). He’s four wins in a row and has gone three from three in the last 90-day window. The early anchor is Tengun Tommy in Race 1 (11:58), two runs for two wins recently, but he’ll need to overcome barrier 12.
Where can I find the best odds for Doomben races?
The cleanest approach is to compare a few books before you bet. Odds weren’t available through the current feed for today’s Doomben races at the time of writing, so check your usual bookmakers closer to jump, or use an odds comparison screen if you’ve got one.
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