Doomben Racing Tips 18 July — can Moshulu Spirit stay unbeaten?
Flemington Racing Tips 18 July — can the 2yo winners hold up?
Flemington Racing Tips 18 July — can the 2yo winners hold up?
Two juvenile races, two very different problems. In the opener, there’s a colt with a soft draw and Craig Williams who keeps knocking on the door at Flemington without landing the punch. In the second, you’ve got a last start winner who’s already proven he can handle this track, but he concedes weight to another last start winner who looks like he might have more upside again.
That’s the story of this meeting: tiny samples, fast-improving 2yos, and a whole lot of guesswork unless you’re willing to take a stance on race shape and intent. These Flemington racing tips are written with that in mind. Two races, both Dormant, both on turf, and both the sort of early card where the right map read matters more than any glossy percentage.
Flemington — the setup
We don’t have going information listed for the meeting in the racecard, so I’m treating it as a standard Flemington winter setup and letting barrier, weight, and who gets control do the heavy lifting in the analysis.
Limited course form across today’s fields. Most of these 2yos have one or two starts at Flemington, so treat track numbers as context rather than a conclusion.
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What I will lean on is the human edge. Craig Williams turns up with two key rides and he rides Flemington well off a genuine sample: 37 rides here for 6 wins and 14 placings. Jett Stanley’s also relevant across both races, and his Flemington record is built on volume too: 22 rides for 5 wins and 8 placings. When your horses are inexperienced, that sort of course familiarity matters.
Race-by-race: Flemington predictions
Race 1: Byerley Hcp — 12:05, 1969m
Ko Phangan is the one I want to be on early. The map looks kind, the gate is perfect, and Craig Williams is exactly who you want when a 2yo has to travel and switch off across a mile plus. He’s drawn barrier 1, carries 130, and the overall profile reads like a horse who can absorb pressure and keep finding.
There’s also enough evidence that he handles Flemington, without pretending it’s some big trend: he’s placed in both course visits. That’s not a “specialist” label, but it does tell you he copes with the big straight and the roomy turns.
The main threat for me is Notified, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s 2 starts for a win, and he’s down at 124.5 from gate 5, which gives H Coffey options if the pace gets messy. His trainer Archie Alexander has enough volume here to respect too: 5 runners at Flemington for 1 win and 2 placings. It’s not a powerhouse sample, but it’s real.
Delahra is the other one that can spoil your day. Two starts, two top-two finishes, and Zac Spain is a positive booking around this track (11 rides for 2 wins). The only knock is that you’re asking a lightly raced 2yo to stretch to 1969m again and do it from gate 2, which can be a help or a trap depending on whether she relaxes.
Staking: Win bet Ko Phangan. Save on Notified if you want cover against the lighter weight and the sharper profile. I’m not playing wide exotics in a race like this.
Race 2: Tab We’re On Hcp — 12:40, 1094m
The market will probably try to turn this into a simple “last start winner versus last start winner” debate. I’m making it simpler than that: I want the horse who has already come to Flemington and won, and I’m happy to pay the weight for it.
Hard Kick gets that nod. He won on his only start at Flemington, and that matters because plenty of 2yos look great on smaller circuits then get lost here. He carries 126.7, jumps from barrier 6, and Jackson Radley sticks. Radley’s Flemington record is built on enough rides to take seriously (32 rides for 2 wins and 10 placings), and the Hayes camp is always a factor here on a proper sample too: 89 runners for 11 wins and 36 placings at the track.
The obvious danger is Panchenko, because he’s also 1 from 1 and he gets in much lighter at 117.9. Craig Williams taking the ride is the strongest possible “we’re here to win” signal, and the Hawkes team has at least shown they can place horses at Flemington: 11 runners for 1 win and 5 placings. The only reason I’m leaning to Hard Kick is that he’s already proven the Flemington win in the bank, and I’d rather trust the horse who’s done it than the horse who might do it.
If you want a blow-out for multiples, The Troubleshooter has a sneaky angle: he’s placed on his only start at Flemington and he’s trained by J D Sadler, who does have a standout course record on meaningful volume for a smaller stable here, 7 runners for 3 wins and 5 placings. L Nolen is a steady set of hands for a juvenile too. The issue is the form line (30) and you’re betting on the stable lifting him rather than the horse demanding it.
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Staking: Win bet Hard Kick. Saver on Panchenko because of the weight swing and the Williams factor. If Hard Kick is under real pressure in the market late, I’d rather shift stake to a straight quinella Hard Kick and Panchenko than go hunting roughies.
The plays
NAP: Hard Kick (Race 2, 12:40). He’s already ticked the “handle Flemington” box by winning here first try, and that’s a big edge in juvenile sprints where plenty don’t stretch out or balance up on this track.
Value: Ko Phangan (Race 1, 12:05). He’s not a flashy last start winner, but he’s been to Flemington twice and placed twice, and barrier 1 with Craig Williams is a setup that lets him control his own destiny.
Banker for multis: Hard Kick. The safest profile on the card because the course win is already proven.
Each-way shape (if you’re playing it): Notified in Race 1. The lighter weight helps, and his two-start profile says improvement can come fast.
Course angle to keep in your pocket: J D Sadler at Flemington. Seven runners is enough to respect, and three wins from that set is the sort of strike that makes you look twice whenever his horses come here, even in the 2yo stuff.
Next time you see a 2yo returning to Flemington after placing here, don’t dismiss it as “only a place” form. On this track, coping with the dimensions often comes before winning on it.
FAQ
What time does racing start at Flemington today?
Racing starts at 12:05 with the Byerley Hcp (Race 1).
Who are the top jockeys and trainers at Flemington on this card?
Among the jockeys actually riding today, Craig Williams brings the strongest Flemington record: 37 rides for 6 wins and 14 placings. Jett Stanley has also ridden plenty here: 22 rides for 5 wins and 8 placings.
Trainer-wise, Ben, Will & JD Hayes have the biggest meaningful sample at the track among the stables represented: 89 runners for 11 wins and 36 placings. For a sharper “small stable, big strike” angle, J D Sadler has 7 runners for 3 wins and 5 placings.
What are the best bets at Flemington today?
My Flemington best bets are Hard Kick in Race 2 (12:40) as the main win play, and Ko Phangan in Race 1 (12:05) as the value win bet off the soft draw and Craig Williams.
Where can I find the best odds for Flemington races?
Shop around with the corporates and the exchange close to jump. Odds feeds weren’t available for these races at the time of writing, so I’m treating price as the final filter rather than the starting point. For general odds comparison and race markets, you can also check your preferred bookmaker apps directly.
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