AFL Round 9 Preview & Predictions: May 2026
Richmond vs Essendon Preview: AFL Round 11 Tips & Predictions
There’s a reason this one feels like it matters more than “17th vs 18th” should. It’s the MCG on a Friday night, two big Melbourne clubs, and both are staring down the same brutal question: who blinks first?
Richmond are last with a 1-9 record and a percentage of 60.95. Essendon are 17th at 1-9 with 70.58. That’s not a typo, they’re basically living the same season. But they’re getting there in different ways, and that’s where the game gets interesting for AFL tips and AFL predictions.
Richmond’s numbers say they can win the ball and at least get it forward: across the last five games in the dataset, they’ve produced 241 inside 50s to Essendon’s 225, and 162 clearances to Essendon’s 139. The Tigers’ issue is what happens after that first win. They’ve kicked 41 goals from that same sample, while Essendon have kicked 58. That’s the match in a sentence: Richmond can get it, Essendon can cash it.
The models are basically unanimous on one point: if you’re looking for the more likely breaker of the deadlock, it’s Essendon. The overall model aggregate tips the Bombers by 12.5 points with roughly 64% confidence. That’s a big call for a side sitting second-last, but it’s also a fair reflection of where each team’s scoring is at right now.
Form guide
Let’s start with the ladder context, because it’s ugly and it frames everything. Coming into Round 11, Essendon are 17th (1-9, 4 premiership points) and Richmond are 18th (1-9, 4 premiership points). Neither has any breathing room and neither can afford another “honourable loss” because the season quickly becomes about development, not wins.
What I’ve liked about Richmond, even through the losses, is the shape of the fight. Their team profile over the five-game sample is harder and more contest-based than you’d expect from the wooden spooner: they’re ahead of Essendon in tackles (269 to 234), clearances (162 to 139) and contested possessions (608 to 582). That is the stuff you need if you’re going to turn a season around. It says they’re not just being walked through.
The catch is the turnover damage and the finishing. Richmond have coughed up 357 turnovers in that span compared to Essendon’s 297, and they’ve scored 41.41 (goals.behinds) to Essendon’s 58.42. When you’re last, you can live with being beaten in talent. What you can’t live with is giving the ball back and then not converting when you do win it.
Essendon’s profile is the more “modern” one. They’re not smashing anyone at the coalface, but they’re cleaner enough to create scoreboard pressure when chances arrive. And they’ve got a couple of players who, on pure output, are playing like top-end midfielders even if the team results don’t show it.
| Category (sample) | Richmond | Essendon | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 162 | 139 | Richmond can start more chains from stoppage |
| Inside 50s | 241 | 225 | Opportunity is there for the Tigers |
| Goals | 41 | 58 | Essendon are making their entries count |
| Turnovers | 357 | 297 | Richmond are feeding opponents easy scores |
| Tackles | 269 | 234 | Effort and pressure lean Richmond |
If you’re trying to picture how this plays, imagine Richmond having more “first looks” at it, but Essendon having more moments where the ball moves with purpose and ends in a shot from a dangerous spot. That’s why this is such a slippery game to tip emotionally. Richmond’s pressure is real. Essendon’s scoring is real.
Key matchups
Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper vs Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish is where the night starts. Taranto’s year reads like someone trying to drag a game out of the mud: 24.8 disposals, 6.4 clearances and 6.2 tackles per game across his five in the dataset. Hopper’s at 22.4 disposals and 5.8 clearances. That’s two genuine inside bulls.
Essendon can match it, but with a different feel. Merrett is still the Bombers’ pulse, running at 25.6 disposals, 4.8 tackles and a huge 6.8 score involvements per game. Parish is the other gear, with 23.4 disposals, 4.8 clearances and 4.6 inside 50s a night. If Richmond don’t get hands and bodies on those two early, the Bombers will be the cleaner side out of congestion and that’s usually the difference at the MCG.
Jayden Short’s leg vs Essendon’s intercept and rebound is the other tactical hinge. Short is averaging 25.4 disposals and an enormous 593 metres gained per game. Richmond use him to reset, to switch, to buy time. If Essendon can block the easy exit and force Short to play under heat, Richmond’s turnover issue gets worse fast.
And then there’s the forward-end reality check: Richmond’s inside 50 volume is not the problem. Their finishing is. Essendon’s likely to look at that and say, “Fine, win the clearance, we’ll back our backline to absorb it, and we’ll punish you on the way back.” Richmond need their small and mid forwards to turn pressure acts into goals, not just “good moments”.
Head to head
This matchup has been a proper MCG staple lately, and the last 10 meetings show it: nine of the last 10 were at the MCG (the other in Perth). Richmond have won six of the last 10, including last year’s low-scoring scrap (Round 18, 2025) where Richmond won 46 to 37.
But the more relevant read is that Essendon have pinched the close ones recently: a one-point win in 2023 (71-70) and a 12-point win in 2024 (86-74, Richmond home). When it’s tight late, it hasn’t been a “Richmond at the ‘G” automatic. It’s been nervy and it’s been about who executes the last clean chain.
Prediction & betting
My read: Essendon are the better chance to turn territory into scoreboard, and that’s why I’m with the models on the winner even though it feels gross tipping a 1-9 side on the road. Richmond’s pressure and clearance edge is real, but their turnover count and conversion profile are screaming that they’re still one step away from making dominance matter.
Predicted winner: Essendon
Predicted margin: Essendon by 13 points
Here’s the betting complication: the odds comparison tool isn’t live yet, so I can’t quote you a verified best price or shop a line properly. That means we bet structure, not price.
- Main play: Essendon head to head (or Essendon 1-39 if your book offers a fair number). The model aggregate is around 12.5 points, and most models are in that 8 to 20 point zone.
- Secondary angle: If you’re leaning Richmond, I get it, but don’t do it blind. Do it through Richmond to win clearances or a Richmond + line position, because their best case is strangling the game and winning enough stoppages to keep Essendon from getting their run going.
- Player angle I like: Zach Merrett to be involved in the scoring chain. He’s at 6.8 score involvements per game in the dataset, which is a monster number for a midfielder in a struggling side. If Essendon score, he’s usually in the story.
If the game turns into a pure contest bash, Richmond can absolutely drag Essendon into a 60-point total and make it a coin flip. But if it opens up even slightly, Essendon’s ability to actually finish their work should get them home.
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FAQ
Who is favoured by the prediction models for Richmond vs Essendon?
Essendon. The model Aggregate tips the Bombers with about 63.96% confidence and a predicted margin of 12.5 points. Most individual models have Essendon in front, with margins commonly sitting in the single digits up to around 20.
Where do Richmond and Essendon sit on the AFL ladder right now?
Coming into Round 11, Essendon are 17th at 1-9 (percentage 70.58) and Richmond are 18th at 1-9 (percentage 60.95). Same wins, different damage.
What team stats matter most in this matchup?
The split between Richmond’s opportunity and Essendon’s conversion. In the five-game sample, Richmond lead in inside 50s (241-225) and clearances (162-139), but Essendon lead heavily in goals (58-41) and have fewer turnovers (297-357).
Which players are the key drivers heading into the game?
For Richmond it starts with Tim Taranto (24.8 disposals, 6.4 clearances, 6.2 tackles per game in the dataset) and Jayden Short (25.4 disposals and 593 metres gained per game). For Essendon it’s Zach Merrett (25.6 disposals and 6.8 score involvements per game) with Darcy Parish as the other major midfield influence (23.4 disposals and 4.6 inside 50s per game).
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